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Toronto FC certainly aren't feeling this July schedule anymore as their midweek draw with Vancouver lead to injuries and dropped points needed to keep them near the top of the table. It also doesn't help that their next fixture is a rematch of last weekend's comeback thriller that will no doubt be well prepared for by the Houston Dynamo to ensure they don't capitulate in the same manner seen on Saturday afternoon. Away at BBVA Compass Stadium has been a very tough place to play since its opening, but 2014 has not been the norm for the Dynamo, who have been beaten soundly on home soil more than once.
The Reds will have their work cut out for them as they have lost two of their anchors on the defence and a consistent piece of the midfield. Houston meanwhile, have their players returning from the World Cup looking back in form and a week to prepare for this match. With some big games looming on their schedule, it might be a 'classic' Ryan Nelsen approach of conservative play as given the state of health on the backline, a victory might be a stretch and grinding out a defence-first draw might be the best route for points.
Keep thinking
It has been a roller coaster week for TFC as they began it behind the eight-ball Saturday down 2-0 early in the game against Houston, came back through a virtuoso performance from Jermain Defoe to win 4-2, then Wednesday night left battered and without the two extra points needed from a home match. With the Dynamo rematch looming, putting these two games and outcomes in perspective will be important to determine what this weekend and following games have to hold.
While the first encounter between Toronto and Houston finished on a positive for the Reds, there is one glaring negative that will need to be remedied if they are to stand a chance this weekend. Namely midfielder Brad Davis. That might be partly in jest, but the bigger picture was an opening third of the match, that under different circumstances would not be a surmountable obstacle. Jermain Defoe has certainly been very good, but cannot be expected to have a hand in every goal, every game, to lead the comeback and steal all three points.
With captain Steven Caldwell injured in that game through a quad tear, TFC followed up with that midweek losing right back Mark Bloom. The two defenders have been a massive part of a much improved backline, Bloom especially has emerged as a very good MLS calibre defender since moving up from the Atlanta Silverbacks of the NASL. Add in Jackson leaving the game early due to a hamstring injury, three consistent starters will be missing from Saturday's rematch.
Houston will no doubt be ready and rested to reverse their fortunes from last weekend. A 2-0 lead often is enough to put most opponents to sleep and good teams can thoroughly see out that advantage. However, the Dynamo have struggled defensively this season, shown to be error prone, and were exposed yet again away from home as their dismal road form continues. However, even in the midst of a poor season, what results Houston have had, has been at home and with the inclusion of their captain Brad Davis.
It cannot be overstated what the long-time Dynamo midfielder brings to the table. This season especially, Houston have only won once without him in the line up. It will be a tall task to prepare for him as Davis was able to seize advantage of a confused backline and midfield and if Dominic Oduro gets the start again, he and the likely right back Nick Hagglund will have to put in a top effort to exit the match unscathed.
While Houston have been a better side at home this season, BBVA Compass Stadium has been far from the fortress established in the 35 game undefeated run after it's opening. Most glaringly are 4-1 and 5-2 defeats at the hands of FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake, respectively. However, the Dynamo have certainly been better at scoring on home turf than away and this will be something to highlight against a Toronto side that will have very much a makeshift back four. TFC need to be mindful of their right side as both Bradley Orr and Nick Hagglund, although competent, have the least amount of games under their belts in the positions they will likely feature at.
This is one reason why the Reds will need to ensure they get the midfield correct, and have no passengers for what will be a real fight in what could be a hot, rainy night, if the forecast is accurate. Michael Bradley and Collen Warner are beginning to look like a solid pairing in the middle, while Johnathan Osorio continues his progression in the midfield. Who is the final piece - perhaps Daniel Lovitz, or will Gilberto get a chance to be part of a three-pronged attack?
What will be interesting to see is if Ryan Nelsen does what most expect of him, in playing a more conservative 4-4-2, with either Lovitz or Dominic Oduro in the midfield, or modify it and add more creativity via Gilberto who despite only scoring one goal, is technically one of the best players on the roster. In what could be a close affair, having him on the pitch for free kicks might be worth the gamble.
In the end
Toronto FC and Ryan Nelsen will need to manage their strategy well to come out of this one with a positive showing, as Houston will be prepared to reverse the outcome of last weekends 4-2 result. Despite being down three regulars, there are still encouraging signs that TFC could leave Houston with points. Only once this season, away to Real Salt Lake, did the Reds look completely out of sorts and taken apart. However, they have bounced back and put forth some strong away displays, most recently the two draws in New York and Chicago. A similar outcome is not out of the question, but to achieve at least a point, they will need to have a combination of solid defensive outing and click better offensively. Most recently though, the Vancouver draw does not inspire confidence their current form will be able to pull of a similar finish from last Saturday.
Prediction
Toronto FC 1 – 2 Houston Dynamo
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