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Toronto FC return home battered and bruised as their hopes of closing the gap on the top teams in the Eastern Conference took a blow last weekend against Sporting Kansas City. They come back to BMO Field with a needed week off, players returning to fitness and an opponent struggling near the bottom of the table. The Chicago Fire, despite glimpses of getting back on track, find themselves in eighth place and present the Reds a golden opportunity to bounce back and start a string of home games off on the right foot.
The Reds come back from Kansas City likely still spinning from the 4-1 loss and realization that there is a significant gap between them and the top two teams in the conference. However, what has been the pattern this year is TFC have also shown a quality gap between themselves and the remaining seven teams below them. Chicago falls into that group and a side that have been poor on the road and not had the scoring touch one would have expecting coming out of the 2013 season. With New England and Philadelphia on the horizon, this match is an essential one to separate TFC from the pack, and stay in a strong position if the top teams slip up.
Keep thinking
TFC are back home at BMO Field looking to regroup and put forth a better display than seen last weekend. Away to Sporting Kansas City, it was a chance to continue a good run of results, as well as seek out redemption for dropping three points to KC at the end of July. Even though the Reds were missing key players such as Jermain Defoe, Steven Caldwell and Mark Bloom, they have been competitive and able to score in their absence.
Instead, they were summarily routed 4-1 and whatever hopes TFC supporters had of posing a real challenge to the top of the table all but disappeared. Toronto now finds themselves securely in third place and the next two months will be about distancing themselves from the rest of the clubs in the Eastern Conference trying to get into the playoffs, and hoping either DC United or Kansas City slip up and they regain some lost ground.
What has been the story from the last few games, and most evident away to Kansas City, has been the loss of Jermain Defoe, Steven Caldwell and Mark Bloom in defence. With Warren Creavalle also out, Toronto's backline is not convincing and attack missing the confidence a former EPL striker brings. Despite not having Defoe, the most encouraging development has been Gilberto finding his scoring touch as well as the return of Bright Dike. Gilberto has been much maligned this season, but he has scored in three games in a row and is finally rounding out his game with the finishing touch that eluded him for the first half of the year.
TFC will need need both areas above improved if they are to put forth a much needed convincing display against Chicago. The Fire have been struggling lately, finding wins hard to come by, but most obviously, the back of the net. It now goes back over two months until the last time they were able to score two goals in an MLS game, and considering their options up top, that is a poor record based on what is available. Toronto will still need to be mindful of their options as reigning MLS MVP Mike Magee is still a threat, as is Quincy Amerikwa and rookie Harrison Shipp. All three have combined for a good total, but it hasn't been enough.
The solution Chicago has tried to bring in is one TFC supporters will be familiar with, and that is Welshman Robert Earnshaw. Overall, his return wasn't staggering in 2013, but what the Reds need to be aware of is Earnshaw's ability to get behind defenders and capitalize on mistakes. This is important to note because if Ryan Nelsen fields an collectively incohesive backline, there could be chances there to arise in favour of Chicago.
However, what Toronto should also realize is Chicago's lack of scoring likely points to issues behind that group of players and this is where there should be opportunities to exploit a weakness. As seen in the first fixture at Toyota Park, the Fire's defending is not up to par for the league, and especially the likes of Jermain Defoe. Ryan Nelsen would be wise to eliminate the counterattacking strategy from last weekend and with Michael Bradley able to control the tempo and possession in the midfield, find ways to distribute the ball into as many areas of the attacking third as possible.
What TFC and Nelsen should be looking at once again is getting Jermain Defoe in opportunities of isolation with defenders and using the attention undoubtedly placed on him to provide secondary scoring options. Whether that is Luke Moore or Jonathan Osorio, or even Michael Bradley, this is a chance for the Reds to show what has been the precedent this season and that is bounce back from a tough loss. This match has a similar feel to it as the Houston game where by all accounts, Toronto should handily win the game, but like Houston, Chicago has the threats to score multiple goals. It might be another shootout at BMO Field, but if Nelsen's tactics are proactive, Mark Bloom is ready to return, and he gets his attacking set up correct, it should be a positive display ending with three points.
In the end
TFC are back at BMO looking to once again forget a dismal road result and attempt to bounce back. It's not the first time they've had a chance after a bad result to face a struggling opponent and Chicago is another opportunity presented to them. This game will come down to preparation during the week and shedding the 4-1 loss from last weekend, as well as coming onto the field with the confidence two high quality DPs should deliver. If the Reds can come out with a determined display and one that is geared towards getting touches to Defoe or Gilberto, against a backline like Chicago's, only good things should happen, especially a victory.
Prediction
Toronto FC 2 – 1 Chicago Fire
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