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It is a repeat of the 2011 Canadian Championship final, and fortunately for the Vancouver Whitecaps, they look to be heading into the last two games of the tournament in much better shape than a year ago. Vancouver hosts Toronto FC in the first match at BC Place with no fear of lightning or rain wiping out a result, and given their results this season, are well poised to lift the Cup for the first time.
TFC arrive in B.C. having defeated the Montreal Impact for their first win since March 14, and also putting in their best showing since that same date. The Reds struggles are well-documented and with management beginning to shuffle the deck with personnel, one important ingredient for success, stability, is now out the window.
The Whitecaps have done well to earn points so far this season, and despite a 4-1 hammering in New England this past weekend, still are the more composed side. There is little to indicated Toronto will follow-up their first home win with their first one on the road, especially considering Torsten Frings did not make the trip. Vancouver simply needs to remain disciplined defensively and they will be one match away from representing Canada in the Champions League.
Keep Thinking
A repeat of the final match-up in the 2011 edition, these two teams could not be at more opposite ends of the spectrum. Last year TFC had a new coach who was promising lofty goals and success, while Vancouver were struggling for wins. The exit from the tournament saw Teitur Thordarson receive his pink slip and in a bit of foreshadowing, a year later Aron Winter’s job looks to be hinging on the results from these two games.
Early days look as though the Whitecaps appear to have gotten their coaching change right, as Martin Rennie has managed to get results in the first third of the season via an improved squad with a solid group of defenders and loads of depth in the attack. Toronto would probably give anything right now for even one of Vancouver’s forwards, as outside of Ryan Johnson, there are no reliable scoring options as even DP Danny Koevermans has not been clinical and injured.
Vancouver is heading into this tilt coming off a humbling 4-1 defeat to the New England Revolution, however, the absence of both Jay DeMerit and Camilo give reason to believe this was more an exception rather than the norm. With a full squad, Vancouver has looked far more competitive this year and the matches they would have lost by a goal, or mental mistake, has been eliminated and they are now the ones grinding out three points.
Again to compare with Toronto FC, they finally earned a victory to move into the finals by defeating the Montreal Impact 2-0, with the help of returning captain Torsten Frings who was able to do it all, in all areas of the pitch. However, he will not be available Wednesday night, and this should be cause for concern amongst TFC supporters, as with Danny Koevermans completely out of form, there is no real quality to elevate the team to another level.
The loss of Frings cannot be overstated as, although slight, the battle in the midfield might have been TFC’s only advantage. The Whitecaps are still waiting on Bryan Robson to arrive, but in the meantime Gershon Koffie, Jun Davidson and Davide Chiumiento are holding it down, and doing well. Frings’ quality trumps what Vancouver has to offer and without him, Toronto really are a step behind across the pitch.
Added to the struggles on the pitch is the turmoil off the pitch with Toronto and this cannot be discounted, as once again they are going through instability and look to be on the brink of another head coaching change. The players on TFC have already been through the ringer over the first two months of the season and one has to question if they can come together and pull off what would be considered an upset.
There is really no strategy that Aron Winter could employ that would instill confidence in TFC coming away with anything at this point. The 0-0 away draw against Montreal in the opening round was through a highly defensive approach, but that clean sheet must be underlined by an Impact team that has struggled to finish their chances. Vancouver, to put it bluntly, are stacked offensively and have a plethora of options from Sebastian Le Toux, Eric Hassli, Camilo, Etienne Barbara and Darren Mattocks. It would seem very unlikely, at home, that the Whitecaps will be kept off the scoresheet against an TFC side whose only consistency has been inconsistency. If Vancouver stays the course and plays as they know how through the first two months of the season, they should be able to have an advantage going into the final game of the tournament.
In the End
While Toronto are heading into this match with a win, and Vancouver returning home after a tough loss, both of these teams are still going in complete opposite direction. The Whitecaps look genuinely on the right track and quickly built their side into a true competitor over the offseason, while Toronto were unable to upgrade their side anywhere and as a result have yet to win a game in the league. Turmoil is once again swirling around the Reds and this cannot be discounted on the toll it will take on the players. Even with a humbling loss for the Whitecaps over the weekend, they appear to have the right balance and staying committed to their approach seen over the last two months should be all that is needed to see out the win and head to Toronto ready to lift the Cup.
Prediction
Vancouver 2 Toronto FC 0
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