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Just when it was thought Toronto’s luck couldn’t get any worse, the Reds schedule has them traveling to one of the toughest MLS venues in an attempt to get a result in Rio Tinto Stadium against Western Conference favourite Real Salt Lake. With TFC knee-deep in record-setting territory for the worst start in league history, it cannot be overstated how critical even just one point is.
This is not just a crucial fixture for the club, but head coach Aron Winter, whose potential in seeing out his three-year contract is looking more unlikely with each passing weekend, and subsequent loss. If there ever was a contrast to a club’s fortunes, it is seen through Real Salt Lake, who since hiring Jason Kreis went on a steady ascent and now maintain their spot amongst the likes of the LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders.
With key players missing, Toronto will need all hands on deck and once again are in territory where there can be no passengers if they are to legitimately get their season started. A mid-week fixture gives them some hope at fatigue from their opponent, but considering Salt Lake boasts some of the best depth in the league, it seems unlikely this will be a major factor. Toronto are nearing an unflattering record and desperately need to get a point, however, in a stadium they have never been able to pull off that feat, the odds are stacked against them that this will be the occasion to change a precedent.
Keep Thinking
Toronto are off to a horrendous start to their season, and not only on the brink of leveling the league record for an opening winless streak, but looking at this fixture and ones ahead, in real danger of surpassing the 1999 Kansas City Wizards. The awful beginning to the campaign has been characterized by poor defending and finishing underlined through costly mistakes, as well as a lack of quality depth shown by a noticeable drop in the team performance once leader Torsten Frings went down to injury.
His return last week was not the magic elixir many hoped would bring a win, however, in the loss, as has been the case in most of TFC's six losses, the Reds showed moments where one could grasp at the fact the team is not as terrible as their record reflects.
As noted, costly mistakes burned any chances of TFC earning their first W of the season, but outside of this, the likes of Adrian Cann, Terry Dunfield, Torsten Frings and Reggie Lamb all demonstrated a commitment to leave it all on the pitch. With Cann and Frings continuing to regain full fitness it will once again be on the attack to compensate for what could be suspect defending. The absence of Danny Koevermans, Nick Soolsma and now Luis Silva means the remaining players absolutely must elevate their games if Toronto are to come away with anything more than a loss at Rio Tinto Stadium.
If there ever has been a model of how to get a fledgling club on track, Real Salt Lake have been the poster-boys for a couple of years now. Jason Kreis' arrival saw him make moves quickly to sort out the team's spine and build from there, resulting in a club that boasts some of the best depth in MLS and have become perennial contenders at the top of their conference.
Anchored by Jameson Olave and Nat Borchers at the back, moving forward RSL have one of the best midfields in the league. With upwards of seven players who could get the start any given week, the names of Beckerman, Morales, Grabavoy, Johnson, Gil and now Johnny Steele give all kinds of options moving forward to supplement an already potent one-two strike force of Fabian Espindola and Alvaro Saborio.
With their mid-week tilt against FC Dallas, red cards from the weekend meant Olave and Espindola earned a much needed break, while Kreis was able to work in squad rotation to give some of his key starters a rest. Even with potential fatigue from their match Wednesday, the return home to Rio Tinto Stadium swings any miniscule advantage TFC may have had back into their favour. Not only have they been nearly unbeatable at home over the last three and a half years, but TFC have never won there, being outscored 8-2 over three encounters.
One of the biggest criticisms towards Aron Winter through last season and now early on in 2012 is a suspect choice in tactics and formation. Last weekend saw him start three at the back against one of the speedier attacking tandems in the league, and this weekend would be no different, and while Espindola and Saborio might not have the same pace, are very technical and tricky to deal with especially if they can isolate the likes of Adrian Cann. It would seem unlikely Winter would make the same mistake of not having enough numbers back and if he wants to save the season, and more importantly his job, might need to abandon the romantic ideals of the 4-3-3 for what will get him the result, even if it’s ugly.
TFC have shown over the last year they can get at least a point in hostile environments, and against better teams, as draws in Portland and DC showed tenacity, while matches against New York, Pumas and even Philadelphia away, found the right formula to keep attacking sides quiet for almost the entire game. With scoring being a massive hurdle so far this season, going toe to toe will not be the answer and Toronto will have to especially be disciplined in remaining compact from the backline to the attackers. It will be critical to not allow Real Salt Lake space through the midfield to operate, and especially catch Toronto’s defenders too far upfield.
There are few signs pointing to this being the match where Toronto will turn it all around, but as is becoming the one straw supporters can grasp to, this TFC team under Aron Winter has been in this situation before and able to come away with an unlikely win. Without question, any result hinges on Toronto eliminating any cheap mistakes, which have been the hallmark to their awful record so far. Torsten Frings will bring the needed leadership and discipline throughout the pitch, and the likes of Richard Eckersley and Ryan Johnson will need to marshall their areas of the pitch to raise the team’s overall chances. Lastly, some consistency in the attack is desperately needed and Reggie Lamb will have to prove he's not the next Rohan Ricketts or Javier Martina, as scoring a brace has not been a good omen for European imports over the last few seasons.
In the End
It is unfortunate that Toronto now find themselves in the very real position of becoming the proud owners of the worst start to an MLS season. With zero points to show from their first four home games, they now must travel to the toughest stadium in the league to keep them from tying such an unsavory record. Real Salt Lake, while already having a home loss, and three total, are still the superior team with much better depth and are playing in a facility that actually can be deemed a fortress. TFC’s record does not reflect their potential and quality, but it appears on this night for them to not only turn around their form, but against one of the best teams in the league, seems very unlikely.
Prediction
Real Salt Lake 2 – Toronto FC 1
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