Toronto FC are home again as a 10-day break leads them into a mid-week clash, and their only meeting, with the Portland Timbers Wednesday night at BMO Field. It is the illustrious ‘Battle of the Basement’ as the winner of this match will get three points and leave the other as the sole owner of the title: Worst team in the league.
There have been few opponents this year that TFC supporters could look at across the calendar and mark down as a sure thing. What we’ve learned in 2012, especially at the once touted ‘Fortress BMO’ is that when Toronto suits up, it’s never a sure thing. Fortunately, Portland on the road are the next best thing as they’ve plummeted from a decent expansion season into a six game winless streak where four have been clean sheets against them.
Both sides will be hampered by international call-ups and TFC look to be the side that will struggle the most with depth as they have several players missing, even aside from the friendlies. This match though will be won on the merit of who can put together the best eleven and who wants it the most. It is a much closer game than most Toronto supporters would like to admit, and by the end of the night if TFC’s best players are on point should have the edge in quality to get the win.
Keep Thinking
After an encouraging three game winning streak through the middle of July, followed by two league losses on the bounce, what is beginning to be clear is TFC are still perennial competitors in the bottom half of the league. Paul Mariner's recent comment that the team is still "Three players away from being half decent" does not instill much confidence in the current roster, and also confirms this. Fortunately they are now up against another woeful side in Portland who have managed to take a step back after a relatively positive MLS expansion season.
The Reds are on a favourable 10-day break after their weekend clash with rivals Columbus was postponed due to the death of rookie Kirk Urso. While the circumstances are tragic and never how one would want such a stretch to occur, the extra days off will be critical for Toronto to distance themselves from their last loss and also prepare themselves for a strategy to win without a handful of key players.
Both clubs are coming into this match missing players to international fixtures on August 15, and TFC look to be the side that will be most affected negatively from this. Portland will be without Steve Purdy (El Salvador) and Lovell Palmer (Jamaica) as those two nations go head to head. Toronto, on the other hand, will be missing Canadians Terry Dunfield and Doneil Henry, while this year's iron man Ryan Johnson will be also suiting up for Jamaica. Recent signing and attempt to improve a struggling back line, centre back Darren O'Dea, will also miss his first game to play for Ireland. Add in an injury to Jeremy Hall and possibly Matt Stinson, and red card suspension to Logan Emory, TFC have not been lacking this many bodies since the 2010 preseason.
The similarities of the two teams’ current dilemma goes beyond personnel problems for this match. Only one point separates them from last place, and the Timbers have recently followed TFC in firing their manager, John Spencer, to get the team on track. Like Toronto, a turn over in players has begun and most notably the team traded 2006 MLS Keeper of the Year Troy Perkins to Montreal for the 2010 Keeper of the Year Donovan Ricketts. New head coach, and former assistant, Gavin Wilkinson looks to be favouring youth and that will likely be the make-up of this side for Wednesday's game as the team appears to be already looking ahead to 2013.
One bit of good news for Toronto to make up for their weakened roster is Portland are far and away the worst road team in the league. Still seeking their first win away from Jeld-Wen Field, in ten matches have only managed to score two goals, and allowed twenty. While BMO Field has been anything but a 'Fortress' this season, Portland represent one of the very few opponents one could look at across the calendar and note as a potential sure win.
However, what should have been sure wins this season have not necessarily worked out this way, and Toronto still need to be wary and on point against some of the Timbers. Their strength lies in their midfield with captain Jack Jewsbury remaining the talisman for the team and is surrounded by DP Diego Chara and Cameroonian Franck Songo'o who has experience in Spain's second division with Real Zaragoza and Real Sociedad. Kris Boyd has not rediscovered his scoring touch from three years ago at Rangers, but has seven goals in his account and will be the attacker to watch.
If Toronto's midfield consists of Frings/Lambe/Silva and Maund, the area that is critical to the outcome of the game becomes the real battlefield. If the match gets physical, TFC will be in trouble as only Frings has demonstrated the mettle to match up to these circumstances. He will need to be on point, as he has had games where his influence has not been at the standard to dictate the result, but if he's in form will without question be Toronto's most important piece. After him, Luis Silva will need to reappear and not be deterred if things get rough. After Frings, Silva is the only player Toronto has that can create the chances to get good chances on goal. While Boyd is nowhere near a potent threat that Portland had hoped, Toronto only have Eric Hassli to count on who will still need to adjust to his new teammates and get the service to put the ball in the net.
With both teams struggling defensively, what this result might come down to is the man between the sticks. Defensively, neither side can come in with too much confidence as both have players who can get the job done, but mistakes have cost them points through the year. While Wilkinson seems to think Donovan Ricketts is an "obvious upgrade" to Troy Perkins, that probably would leave many TFC supporters wondering just how bad Perkins has been? Ricketts has fallen far from his 2010 form and his last game at BMO was a loss against 10 players in Red and after that a 3-0 defeat at Saputo Stadium. Milos Kocic has had a tough season as well, but based more on little support rather than poor form and has an edge in shot stopping which should give Toronto the slightest of edges in this encounter.
In the End
Going into this season, certainly neither club thought that by mid-August their fixture would be to determine who will be in sole possession of last place in the league. Toronto got off to the worst start in league history and Portland have been through several rough losing streaks to get to this point. With so many players unavailable, it will come down to which new faces have it in them to step up and not be passengers in this match. Toronto has the talent in the likes of Torsten Frings, Luis Silva, Eric Hassli and Milos Kocic to give them a very slight edge over a team whose yet to win on the road this year. In the end, that edge should be enough to see the Reds through in what might end up being an ugly affair.
Prediction
Toronto FC 2 – 1 Portland Timbers
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