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TFC are once again up against one of the top sides in the league as they host perennial Cup finalists, the Houston Dynamo, on Saturday afternoon. After an abysmal 2012 where the label 'Fortress BMO' became a farce, the Reds so far this season have been stubborn playing in Toronto. They have yet to lose against three of the best teams in MLS, with a win over Kansas City and draws against Los Angeles and FC Dallas.
Houston can now be added to the list of early season match ups that Toronto will have difficulty getting all three points out of. The Dynamo's biggest strength, and one that TFC supporters have yet to come close to experiencing, is their stability. This will be important in this fixture as it without a doubt plays into how these two teams stack up. Toronto, despite seeming to have the right culture, mentality and harmony in the dressing room, are still working through a complete approach on the field. Until their quality improves, especially against the very top of the league, a single point is realistically the best that can be expected.
Keep thinking
Toronto returns home to BMO Field after a tough match against Philadelphia that saw Darel Russell go down to injury and Ashtone Morgan receive two yellows. With Richard Eckersley MIA as well, the full back position is looking vulnerable heading into this weekend's game. Robert Earnshaw netted yet another goal and between his work up top, and Joe Bendik's between the posts, TFC have managed to hang in every week so far this season.
The Houston Dynamo arrive north of the border having set a new MLS record for unbeaten games at home, reaching the 35-game mark last weekend in their 2-1 win over the Chicago Fire. While this might appear like a daunting run of form to face for Toronto, Houston have lost their last two road games, a 3-2 defeat to FC Dallas and most recently 2-0 away to Portland.
Six games into the season, it has become clearer of what TFC's current roster has to offer, and what can be expected each week. There is no question injuries and fitness will hamper them from offering their stiffest resistance against the Dynamo, and the operative word there is resistance. Toronto have done well against some of the best teams in MLS, but aside from their home-opener they have yet to show they are at the level where they can go out and outright control and win games.
Robert Earnshaw still remains the pinnacle player up top who has done very well to make his chances count, netting five goals so far. At the back, Joe Bendik has put the return of Stefan Frei in the back of most supporter's minds and with Darren O'Dea in front of him paired with either Gale Agbossemonde or Danny Califf, these four players are clearly what's keeping Toronto's head above water in the first two months of the season.
It will be in the areas not noted above where this game will get interesting as Houston have one of the more solid midfield's in MLS. This is the most glaring deficiency of Toronto FC right now and Houston have the players to take advantage of it. Stability has already been noted as one of their biggest strengths, and after Dominic Kinnear, it is midfield fixture Brad Davis who has anchored this team for seven years, emerged as the best left-sided player in the league and arguably the best set piece taker now that David Beckham has departed for PSG.
Having him set up with Adam Moffat, who has shown he can score from distance, Ricardo Clark who returned from Germany near the end of least season, and if Oscar Garcia is fit, TFC could be in real trouble from either right in the middle of the field, or down the wings. The likes of Ryan Richter and possibly Logan Emory could be in for a rough ride as it would not be a stretch to see Houston stretch Toronto wide isolating the full backs to send crosses in to Will Bruin.
The scouting report no doubt is out on Toronto FC going into this game and Ryan Neslen should try and find a way to shake things up and catch Houston off guard. There is no question they'll be expecting Robert Earnshaw to bring the pressure and finding another player to fill the gap, and play off him will be key. Whether that is Justin Braun is still a quesiton mark, and Luis Silva has the potential but was ineffective last week at creating anything of real note. Silva is the player though who needs to step up and show the glimpses from 2012 where he was both a creative and scoring threat in the attacking third.
Quite simply, Houston have enough quality, organization and discipline to neutralize a one-trick pony that Toronto FC is right now. The Reds will surely be stingy defensively with an in-form Joe Bendik and Darren O'Dea in front of him, but that will not win the game. Anything better than a draw depends on someone else popping up and scoring goals and who that can, and whether or not Toronto earns either one or three points, won't be certain until Saturday afternoon.
In the end
It might be surprising to some that Houston have only won once at BMO Field, which was a 2-0 victory last season. In between, are two TFC wins and a slew of draws that maybe make this tilt all the more difficult in determining a potential outcome. By all accounts, Houston should have the quality to handle any difficulties Toronto presents, and given injuries and still having a roster in flux, they should be in a good position. It is hard to see right now where and how TFC can muster up a win and on this day it would seem a draw would be the most likely scenario, but Houston might be the side to hold off Earnshaw and without him it makes the task for a TFC result even tougher.
Prediction
Houston 2 – 1 Toronto FC
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