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With Toronto having been out of the MLS Playoff race before it even began this year, Tuesday’s CONCACAF Champions League fixture against Mexican side Santos Laguna is a must win match if Paul Mariner and his side have any designs on winning anything of consequence in 2012.
After becoming the first Canadian club ever to reach the semifinals of the premier club competition for the CONCACAF region in March, TFC held their own playing a draw at home against Santos March 28th before being ousted from the tournament via a decisive 6-2 loss down in Torreon, Mexico on April 4th.
With the tournament format having changed for this iteration of the competition, Tuesday’s match is essentially a must win for the Reds give the fact that only the Group 1 winner will advance to the quarter-finals. Toronto FC and Santos currently share first place in the group with three points each, with Toronto and Santos having already defeated CD Aguila 5-1 and 5-0 respectively in Toronto and Mexico. With both teams expected to earn victories when face off against Aguila in El Salvador and, especially given the challenge Toronto will face playing away in Torreon, Mexico in October, Tuesday’s match essentially a must win for an embattled TFC side.
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Toronto has some momentum coming into this match based on the late draw they earned against MLS Cup contenders the Houston Dynamo on Saturday. Add in the fact that Torsten Frings was rested for that match and taking into account that Ashtone Morgan only played twenty-five minutes and two key starters who have taken a physical beating this year should be fresh for Tuesday’s game. Striker Eric Hassli also missed the match against the Dynamo on Saturday due to back spasms and whether or not the big Frenchman will be able to go against the Mexicans will likely be a key variable in terms of whether or not an underdog TFC side will be able to pull out a much needed team.
Given the fact that Toronto and Santos have already faced off twice this year, the Mexicans do present a familiar opponent that would bring any significant surprises to the proceedings. However, they are also one of the best teams in the Mexican Liga MX. And several of their players are coming off a major confidence producing performance at the London Olympics, where the Mexican National Team won the goal medal.
Two key players that the Reds will have to look to find a way to keep in check are 28 year old striker Oribe Peralta, who lead the Olympic tournament in scoring and scored a brace in Mexico’s 2-1 win over Brazil in the tournament finale. United States born forward Herculez Gomez was also a major thorn in Toronto’s side the last time these two sides met, as he scored three goals against Toronto over the two legs last spring.
From the standpoint of Santos Laguna, they will be facing off against a vastly different team compared to the one they played against last March and April. Gone is Dutch Head Coach Aron Winter and his Barcelona/Ajax influenced 4-3-3 tactical approach. In is English manager Paul Mariner and his very direct 4-4-2 tactical system. In terms of the Toronto FC squad, several of the highly technical players that at times flourished in the previous pair of games against Santos – Joao Plata, Julian de Guzman, Danny Koevermans, Nick Soolsma – are gone or injured and have been replaced by Hassli, Darren O’Dea, Andrew Wiedeman and Quincy Amarikwa.
While Toronto has struggled to score goals ever since Koevermans went down with a season-ending ACL injury, the Toronto FC defence has looked better ever since the arrival of central defender Darren O’Dea. He has settled into Toronto FC’s squad quickly and will be a key player for the home side on Tuesday.
One player who will need to come up huge for Toronto on Tuesday will be forward Ryan Johnson. The Jamaican International was arguably Toronto’s player in their previous successful Champions League run, but he has looked ineffective and out of sorts ever since Koevermans went down with his unfortunate injury. If Johnson can turn on a switch and revert the form he previously displayed against Dallas, Los Angeles and Santos Laguna in the Champions League, Toronto has at least a fighting chance of pulling out a result.
Another player who has been key to any success that Toronto has enjoyed in 2012 is keeper Milos Kocic. Interestingly, Mariner has already announced that backup keeper Freddy Hall will get the start against Santos, with rumours of a contract dispute between Kocic and the club being suggested by some as being at the heart of Mariner’s decision to sit his more experienced and in form shot stopper for such a crucial match.
In the End
Based on recent form displayed by Toronto FC, you would have to be a genuine cockeyed optimist to like Toronto FC’s chances against a much superior opponent. Simply put, Santos Laguna are a better team than Toronto FC in pretty much every facet of the game and they have to be considered the strong favourites on Tuesday and over the two legs. That said, this current Toronto FC squad has shown plenty of character and fight under Mariner and, with a break or two going their way, could at the least set themselves up to play a final determining match in Mexico.
Prediction
Santos Laguna 1 Toronto FC 1
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