All the chips are on red as the final two fixtures for Canada have arrived amid trepidation, nervousness and anxiety. They will have to take it one game at a time and on paper, and at first glance, have been given a good draw taking on Cuba at home Friday night. The island nation has yet to win in the group, or even score a goal, and while it might seem like a sure thing, there is much more on the line than just a victory. Taking their opponent for granted would prove disastrous as Canada needs to not only win, but by a comfortable margin.
Coming off not just a disappointing result, but performance away in Panama, Canada still has plenty to prove. With only two goals so far in four matches, they will need to start clicking like they did against teams such as St. Kitts and St. Lucia. While Cuba is a much bigger step up, should everyone in the red and white regroup from their last loss and refocus with confidence, there is no reason why, at home, Canada should not leave with a win and strong showing.
Kevin McKenna
Keep Thinking
Everything is now on the line for Canada as their hopes of making it to the final round of World Cup Qualifying comes down to these last two games in Group C. They had a chance to set themselves up for an easier ride, and much less pressure, but a poor outing in Panama in early September changed the face of the table and now Canada are not only in a must-win scenario, but must-win big.
With Panama hosting Honduras, the easiest route to move on to the next round is if Panama wins convincingly, thus cutting into the Honduran goal difference. Canada running up the score against Cuba, thus giving them the goal difference advantage over 'La Bicolor' heading into the last game in Honduras, would be the ideal scenario to put the onus on Canada's opponent to come up with a huge effort.
The key part of that equation though is goals, something that has been in scarce supply for Canada in this round. In four games they've only scored twice, and one of those goal scorers is out due to injury.
It is hard to believe just over two years ago Dwayne De Rosario was on the fringe of the starting eleven, and even the roster. MVP performances in MLS has risen his stock and his ability to be an x-factor over ninety minutes will be missed in these two critical games. Add in the loss of Josh Simpson and one cannot debate the left side of the attack is nowhere near as potent as it could be with a healthy roster.
Simeon Jackson:
Stephen Hart will have to get his side not only geared for a game opponent, but discover what it will take for his team to break out as seen against St. Lucia and St. Kitts. Even though he's only bagged one goal for his club side, Olivier Occean is still the biggest offensive threat Canada has and finding a way to apply a direct approach so he can either run on to or head in deliveries into the area would be a sound strategy.
Without De Rosario and Simpson, it might be worth pairing up Occean and De Jong who both have experience in a similar brand of football playing in Germany's Bundesliga. Neither have had a chance to link up yet as Occean was injured for De Jong's appearance in Panama. With Simeon Jackson likely starting wide right, Canada will also depend on strong support from the midfield.
Going into the match, this is probably Canada's strongest area of the pitch. All three likely starters have been getting ninety minutes each week and performing well at their domestic clubs. Atiba Hutchinson has shown in this round he can completely boss the midfield in possession drawing players to him in order to release his teammates, such as Occean or Jackson. Will Johnson and Julian De Guzman also will bring much needed ball winning as well as the potential to push forward and have an effort on goal.
Cuba come into this match sitting at the bottom of the group, without a win or even a goal. If anyone thinks, especially the Canadian players, that the island nation will simply roll over they will likely be in for a rude awakening. Despite not scoring, Cuba have been respectable in both of their away losses, being downed 1-0 on both occasions. While it might not be the same line-up that propelled them to a top six ranking in CONCACAF, they will still have plenty to prove in this game.
If there is anything to take from their away form it is based on their country's political situation, it might not be a stretch to say the Cubans will look to put in a bigger effort in front of Central and North American eyes who might see a potential future player. The one thing though that might give Canada an advantage over the two away results in Panama and Honduras for Cuba is the weather. Neither of those countries will make a Caribbean nation as physically uncomfortable as a cold October night on the waterfront in Toronto.
The only area outside of scoring that might be of concern is a lack of minutes for Kevin McKenna and Andre Hainault. Both players have been on an off the pitch of late and will need to stay sharp as a clean sheet is paramount for Canada in this match. St. Lucia already demonstrated what happens if Canada's defence slackens and Puerto Rico as well, although they did not finish their chance, nearly came away with a win were it not for a huge save from Lars Hirschfeld.
None of that will matter though if Canada comes out like they did against Panama, except are clinical in their finishing. Execution has been the issue in this round as the chances have been there, but making them count has been another story. Canada has the tools - athletic players such as Simeon Jackson and Atiba Hutchinson who can push deep or draw players to them, and physically strong ones as well such as Olivier Occean who can hold up the ball as his teammates follow up on the play. There will be urgency to make the chances count, but if Canada brings the same pressure as seen a month ago, against a side nowhere near as organized as Panama, the score should be comfortable and result in Canada's favour.
In the End
It seems very unlikely Cuba will come into Toronto in the middle of October and bring a game that will put Canada on their back foot. Canada has a big gap in terms of quality and with homefield truly being an advantage in this one, it will come down to how clinical they are in finishing the chances they get. Cuba will no doubt show up to play and hopefully Stephen Hart has learned from matches such as Puerto Rico and is ready for anything, especially every man behind the ball. If Canada comes with everything and the kitchen sink, as well as a lakefront effect, it might not take long to break down the Cuban side and go into Honduras with a real chance at progressing to the Hex.
Prediction
Canada 2 – 0 Cuba
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