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Posted by
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February 4, 2018 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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It was recently announced the CanMNT's first game under new coach John Herdman will be against New Zealand on March 24 in Spain. New Zealand can be generally regarded as a good opponent for Canada, as culturally their roster tends to come from a similar environment with most top players not playing domestically, but abroad. Added, their position is similar in terms of where they rank in world soccer. New Zealand's reputation is fairly strong coming off a World Cup Qualifying cycle where they were one game from making it to the World Cup, despite not beating any real competition based on competing in the Oceania Region.
This should also be a game where Canada is competitive and expected to win, which is partly why I'd assume the CSA made arrangements with New Zealand, opposed to a similar calibre of recent opposition such as Scotland, South Korea and Morocco, where Canada were the underdogs going into those games. The problem with this type of opponent is despite the result, Canada could be destined for criticism. If they beat New Zealand, it should be expected, and if they draw or lose, it will add fuel to the fire on whether John Herdman was the right choice to be Canada's Men's National Team coach. Due to this, I expect Canada to call up and play their top players, which doesn't address the CanMNT's greatest issue: development.
When Octavio Zambrano was brought in there was talk about a change of culture regarding the Men's game in Canada. First, Benito Floro made us smarter in terms of how we compete, but Zambrano was going to help in the development of a new generation who would make Canada favourites against countries like Trinidad, Honduras, El Salvador and Jamaica. Getting to the CONCACAF Qualifying Hex would no longer be a concern and competing with United States and Mexico was a realistic ambition.
Not being on the inside of Canadian Soccer decisions, I have no direct knowledge whether Zambrano was the right person to lead this change, but did hear valid concerns of issues during his short time in the job. The main problem I have is the CSA's only excuse through this seems to be buyer's remorse against their own idea of where the program is going, rather than the issues Zambrano might have had in the job. Some rumors of Zambrano's player selection or not concentrating on all his duties, to me, don't really matter when the overall goal of the team is qualify for a tournament where games start 3-4 years from now.
If I had Zambrano's agenda, which I do agree with, and was also picking a team for the 2017 Gold Cup, I wouldn't take one recognizable name to the tournament. We already know who Milan Borjan, Scott Arfield, Junior Hoilett, and Cyle Larin are and what they can offer. While also bringing in players who will be over 30 years old in 2-3 years time, or experienced but never played at the highest level, also seems counter productive in terms of long term development for the program.
Then comes the decision on John Herdman. He is sold as Canada's first choice and a person they didn't want to lose after his success with the Women's program. We know he was a highly sought after coach by the England's Women's team and then added rumors, which I don't believe were true, there was interest in MLS. Herdman has yet to be asked any truly difficult or big idea questions, yet the Herdman-controlled interviews since he's been hired paints him as a hard worker, one of the guys, and leader who the whole program and all the players need to believe in going forward. This belief system was supposedly a major reason for the Canadian Women's National Team success.
Herdman became coach of the National Women's team in 2011. At that time, Canada was still regarded as a top 10 team in the World, however they had a disappointing 2011 World Cup and a change was welcome. He would lead Canada to a Pan-Am Gold medal in 2011 and then his highlight as Canada's Women head coach was the Bronze medal at the 2012 Olympics. He followed this up with what I feel was a disappointing performance at the 2015 World Cup that Canada hosted, but again did well winning another Bronze at the 2016 Olympics.
I would say, in summary, Herdman's history with the Women's team is winning a number of games against easy opponents, basically average against similar competition, and traditionally lost to top programs such as United States and Germany. Although what made him desirable was the ability to win games when Canada were not favorites and in hostile environments, such as beating Great Britain and Brazil in the Olympics. That being said, should we be giving credit to John Herdman or Canada's and arguably one of the world's best players during all his success, Christine Sinclair? Taking it from that angle and looking at that track record, I would say Sinclair could be more qualified, by the fact she's Canadian, to coach the Men's National Team than Herdman is.
If Herdman was the desired coach by the CSA, based on the track record, it shows once again how miserably poor the decision-makers at the CSA are. Over a recent period they have had in their midst a Canadian, who three years ago coached in the same city as the CSA, who has the exact same success rate, if not better. Like Herdman, the coach in question - Marc Dos Santos, relies as much on grit, determination and team comradery for success. Over the last three years, Dos Santos took three different teams to a Championship game with Ottawa, Swope Park Rangers and finally winning the 2018 NASL Championship with San Francisco. He is now the assistant coach at MLS expansion side LAFC, who recently signed two Canadians Mark-Anthony Kaye and Dejan Jakovic via his influence; a tradition Dos Santos has shown in all jobs bringing in a number of Canadians who played an important role in his success. This might make him the most influential person in Canadian soccer over the last five years, even ahead of Herdman.
I don't expect the transition for Herdman to be easy. Arguably the men's team has not played to their potential, although that is not the defining factor of the Canada's Men's National Team being good or bad. Players such as Atiba Hutchison, Borjan, Arfield, Hoilett, and Larin, if playing, can make you competitive, but relying on them for the next three/four years will not make you a winner. It is as much about the development of players like Alphonso Davies, Liam Millar, Liam Fraser, Julian Dunn, Noble Okello, Jonathan David, and Adonijah Reid. It is about development, experimenting, and building something that you can rely on, so when the time comes you are playing the best 11 players you produced, and not an outsider who has shown well for his club team over the past three months.
Like the Women's National Team, Herdman might benefit from club team development and if organizations like TFC Academy, Whitecaps Academy, Impact Academy, Sigma FC and the growth of CanPL continue, Herdman could be gifted significant talent over the next few years. With that said, like Dos Santos, wouldn't the brains behind one of these successful pipelines of players be more qualified than Herdman himself? Or are the CSA not expecting success, but instead are just looking for someone to protect themselves or become rewarded through the work of others?
What I expect from this hiring is either an acceptance from Canadians that where we stand now is where we are on the soccer landscape. The players Herdman picks will do us proud and not embarrass ourselves when we host the 2026 World Cup. Or I expect a revolt along the lines of "we are better then this" and our lack of true ambition is hurting everyone involved in the game. With the landscape of Canadian soccer ever changing and potentially in a rapid ascent, I feel the latter is more likely to happen. Like Zambrano, this potential failure will be far more the responsibility of the CSA than Herdman, who I feel at this point to be another regrettable hiring, not based on the coach himself, but the CSA's track record.
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Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.
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