In sports terms, Wednesday night’s Eastern Conference semi-final fixture fits the cliche that “it is anyone's game”. Montreal have taken a 3-2 lead into Toronto, although TFC can go through by winning 1-0, 2-1 or winning by two goals or more. With the game at BMO Field many would put Toronto as favorites in advancing to the 2016 MLS Cup Finals, however, as we see in sports and when these two clubs play each other, the favorites don't always come through with the victory.
Last Tuesday’s game aligned with many of the points I set out in my analytical preview before the game in Montreal, and many were in the Impact’s favor. My first main point was that Toronto has done well lately through the performances of Armando Cooper. Since joining Toronto, Cooper averaged close to 90 touches per 90 minutes and passed the ball at an over 80% rating. He also has been very strong in comparison to other MLS players with his passing, dribbling and creating key passes for his teammates. Although the concern with Cooper when signed by Toronto was his lack of consistency and one of those players who can lose his cutting edge if he doesn't get what he wants. Cooper had 51 touches in the game at the Olympic Stadium but was replaced early for Will Johnson in the 56th minute.
My second point was looking at Toronto’s recently established 5-3-2 approach and despite the success in playing this formation it could create issues for the Reds if their opponent can exploit the flanks. This turned out to be the case and TFC's biggest weakness in defense. The first two Montreal goals both exploited right back Steven Beitashour with Dominic Oduro scoring the opening goal and Matteo Mancosu second goal coming off a poor defensive clearance by Beitashour. I also mentioned Ambroise Oyongo who would score the Impact’s third goal, although running through the center instead of the wing. Oyongo is as much as an attacking player than he is a full-back and was overwhelmed with the other Montreal defenders when Toronto controlled the ball but like Piatti, Oduro and Mancosu is a threat on the counter attack which showed throughout the game until the Impact key players started tiring towards the end of the game.
The third point was the Giovinco/Piatti comparison and again you can say Piatti outplayed Giovinco. The Italian DP looked frustrated most of the game having four shots, with none on target and being ineffective within the 18 yard box outside of his cross to Altidore for Toronto’s first goal. Although a positive sign for Toronto was the play of the Reds US Internationals Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley. Both were imperative in Toronto's comeback showing great determination and strength in dominating the Impact in tight situations.
Bradley had 97 touches in the first game and as you can see from his seasonal heat map how much ground he covers over the whole field. He would go on and score the Reds second goal although I still have concerns that sometimes Bradley puts too much responsibility on himself and might not make the smartest decisions. Toronto need to score to advance, so I would expect Bradley to play a key role both on offense and defense on Wednesday and be the center of attention.
Despite Toronto losing, Altidore was my player of game one playing an influential role in both Toronto FC goals scoring the first one and providing control in the 18 yard box to help set up Michael Bradley’s second goal. Altidore had 39 touches in the first game but his main factor in the game was his strength both off and on the ball which led to Altidore taking the ball away from Montreal defenders three times while also being fouled twice and almost every cross or corner in the box both Laurent Ciman and especially Victor Cabrera struggled in preventing Altidore in making contact with the ball.
My final point was the impact of the substitutes and being down 3-0 Toronto made two early substitutions in putting on Will Johnson and Tosaint Ricketts. Ricketts would make an immediate impact on the game just missing a goal himself before the Altidore’s goal and providing the final touch to Bradley on his goal. Johnson was less influential but was good at maintaining pressure by controlling Montreal clearances and putting the ball back into the box. Montreal put on Didier Drogba in on the 70th minute with Montreal up 3-1 at the time. Drogba replaced Mancosu and was asked to play the same role chasing and applying pressure to the Toronto defense and holding up the ball. Drogba did get a couple of shots off target where he showcased his skill of ball control and quick shooting, but for the most part didn't have a major influence on the game. Johan Venegas was a late sub but still had 13 touches and two shots in under five minutes of play.
The question now is what can each club take from the first game that will allow them to be successful in the second game under the current circumstances, including the 3-2 for Montreal scoreline? One inkling is to start Ricketts, and although fully deserved, I don't expect Toronto FC to do this and instead play the same starting eleven as the last game. The reason for this is the game in Toronto is 90 minutes and although they need to both score and win, whoever has the advantage in the game will have to dictate tempo in their favor. Toronto is best with Bradley working with Giovinco, Cooper and Osorio in the midfield in setting up opportunities for each other with the wing-backs and Altidore up front. Ricketts starting would put too much pressure on Bradley to quarterback the offense and might also eliminate Giovinco's influence as the team would have too many forwards upfront. That being said, I expect Ricketts to come in the game and Greg Vanney in general to make quick substitution in trying to influence the game like he did in Montreal.
Although if I was in Montreal's position I might make one radical decision and start Venegas and Drogba over Oduro and Mancosu. This is not because I think the Impact are better with Venegas and Drogba, but because of what the Impact need out of the game to advance. I can't see Montreal advancing if they allow Toronto to control 65%+ of the ball which we have seen especially when Toronto have scored their goals. I feel both Venegas and Drogba will get more touches and control the clock better then Oduro and Mancosu. This would also give the Impact the option of substituting Oduro and Mancosu to chase the defense if still up towards the final third of the game or as offensive threat if Montreal falls behind.
Both sides have negative aspects and game influences that at this point of the season is out of their control. The Impact are an old team and my fear for them from the beginning of the season is how effective they can be over a complete season and taking on so much pressure. Meanwhile, Toronto has had reputation throughout their history and even this season of folding under pressure. This season there was a number of games, including Montreal's last visit to BMO Field, where Toronto should have come out with a win, but didn't.
A factor that looks to have less of importance will be the weather, as it is expected on Wednesday to be relatively warm and a temperature both teams have played in before. There is a chance of rain, which might make the ball move quicker and wind is always a factor at BMO but for a November 30th game date both teams should be quite pleased with the forecast.
You can't talk about MLS without bringing up the referees. Jair Marrufo takes control of Wednesday’s game, who has been an MLS ref since 2002. Although not afraid of giving out yellow cards, he has only given out one red card this season. Ironically, he was the referee in the 2-2 game I talked about in detail in my last article. In that game he ended up calling 30 fouls including Piatti’s penalty and gave out five yellow cards. His active whistle should give players like Cooper an advantage and another reason why Montreal should start Venegas and Drogba as both players look to be fouled when given the opportunity. The other interesting fact about Marrufo is how few Toronto games, and for that matter Montreal, he has had in his career. However, both clubs are rather successful when he has reffed them, including Montreal's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final victory.
Finally the atmosphere will be electric on Wednesday and unlike other sport stories almost all attending TFC games are not bandwagon jumpers but seasoned attendees, so expect the crowd to be in unison and supportive throughout the game. Certainly you hope this will help the team on the field, although now with a potential MLS Cup home game as well (with Seattle winning) I think it is important that TFC players don't get caught up in all the excitement and try to play as composed as possible, otherwise the environment could give the Impact an advantage.
For someone in my position it is very difficult to choose a winner. Even analytically I would say the game is 50/50 with Montreal maybe having a slight advantage because of the current score. I don't usually watch a game as a fan, although the hope of hosting a MLS Cup Final with this much attention on the game in Canada would be a great experience. That being said, if Montreal was to advance I would be supportive of their chances in Seattle.
I concluded the last article discussing which coach would win this series and in game one you can give both coaches credit for exploiting weaknesses in their opponent, although there were five goals scored and you could easily say both teams made mistakes. I think the one thing we all need to remember is there is one more game after this and the season is not a complete success unless you win that one as well.
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Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.
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