When I’m predicting a result, most often I take long-term analysis into account when looking at a club and their players’ performance via recent form, the complete season and key players’ full career. This form of scouting and analysis is relatively recent in soccer, with roles such as a technical scout becoming common with some of the larger clubs in the world, and the idea of looking at accumulated data when recruiting players and evaluating an opponent.
Admittedly, I've been doing this type analysis prior to the term of "technical scout" was even coined and have been a part of a small group of people trying to show the game the value of this work. An example of this is I might have been one of the only analysts who saw a Toronto FC vs Montreal Impact Eastern Conference Final realistically occurring. In my preseason analytical previews I said I felt Montreal are a team who have room to grow and if everything works out I feel are potential MLS Cup contenders. While with Toronto FC, I was an eyewitness to the ongoing development of the club and via articles on RedNation online and guest appearances on ESSU podcast, mentioning what Toronto FC needed to do from being a team with some key players to a successful team. Improvements in goalkeeping, defense and the later addition of Armando Cooper and Tosaint Ricketts sees Toronto, on paper, as the top team remaining in this year’s MLS playoffs.
Although an exceptional thing from this season that you don't see in most soccer leagues is that the Eastern Conference Finals will be the sixth and seventh time Toronto FC and Montreal Impact will be playing each other in 2016. As well, especially how past results played out this season, these previous games should identify what can be expected from the Eastern Conference finals and how these two rivals play each other.
Of the five previous matches this season Toronto FC won two games, including a 4-2 Canadian Championship game where Jonathan Osorio and Jordan Hamilton scored twice, then advancing after holding Montreal to 0-0 draw away. They also won 2-0 in Montreal where Sebastian Giovinvco scored twice in a game I felt was Toronto FC’s best match this season prior to the playoff game in New York. Montreal also won in Toronto 1-0 in a game that saw the Impact go a man down but good tactics and taking advantage of a Reds mistake saw Montreal steal the game from an Ignacio Piatti 73rd minute goal.
However, game that I think previews the playoff matchup best was the 2-2 draw in Montreal prior to the postseason. In that game Toronto fell behind twice on two goals from Ignacio Piatti, the second being a penalty after Altidore tied it 1-1, although an 86th minute goal by Ricketts gave Toronto FC the point.
The most significant aspect from the game was the starting lineup for this game and the expected starting line-up for the playoff matchup. Toronto FC did not play their recently established 3-5-2, and had Marky Delgado starting over Nick Hagglund, but Toronto did play Giovinco, Altidore, Bradley and Cooper. Meanwhile, Montreal put out a side that is expected to be the same starting line-up next Tuesday, including Patrice Bernier and Hernan Bernardello in the midfield and Matteo Mancosu starting up front ahead of Didier Drogba.
Using data from the game and graphics provided to me by Johan Pisch of @Soccerlogic I will try to dig deeper into this game and try to forecast key aspects for the upcoming Eastern Conference Match-up.
The first thing to look at is both clubs’ touches and average positioning. What stands out from the October 16th game is the influence of Armando Cooper, as he and Michael Bradley had over 100 touches and controlled the center of the pitch as Toronto would win the overall possession numbers in this game 57% to 43%. Especially after the first 30 minutes of the game, they controlled the ball 62% to 38%, while in the last 10 minutes, a period of time that included Ricketts scoring the game tying goal, Toronto also had 94% of the ball. Altidore and Giovinco were also more active than Mancosu and Oduro touching the ball more than twice then the Impact forwards. This relates to dominance in the game but also style as without Drobga the Impact forwards play more of a long-ball/chase/pressure game, while when Altidore is on his game he can contribute as much holding up the ball and being part of position than just a straight striker, which is partly shown in his final average position on the pitch.
What stands out for me with regards to the Impact was the final positioning of Hernan Barnardello playing partly in almost a left full-back role, which allowed Ambroise Oyongo more freedom to push up on the wing. Toronto FC has had good success implementing their 3-5-2 formation by allowing fullbacks Justin Morrow and Steven Beitashour to play a more advancing role, although in this series Beitashour could have his hands full with Oyongo. Meanwhile, Oduro’s speed on Montreal's right might cause Morrow to play farther back. This may at least frustrate Toronto in breaking down the Impact. Without this added width we might see Jonathan Osorio and Cooper playing wider where they haven't been as effective.
Of course you can't talk about Montreal and Toronto without talking about their star players Ignacio Piatti and Sebastian Giovinco, both recently snubbed for the MLS MVP award and an award both players deserved to be in contention for. During the regular season Giovinco had 17 goals and 15 assists which was 63% of Toronto FC goals, while Piatti had 17 goals and six assists and 47% of Montreal Impact goals, and 64% if you remove Drogba's contributions from the team. Piatti scored both goals in their last meeting, while Giovinco was actually not involved directly in TFC goals but not from a lack of trying.
Giovinco would take nine shots on net with Montreal keeper Evan Bush saving three of them with Giovinco’s closest opportunity was a shot that hit the post from distance. Cooper also hit the post on a shot after a mazy run that should have given Toronto a 1-0 lead. The interesting thing in looking at the total shots in the game was despite Toronto FC outshooting Montreal 21-12, the chances within the danger zone was much closer, with Piatti having five shots including his goal and winning the penalty, while Giovinco only had two with seven of his shots from longer range.
Despite scoring, Altidore only had two shots overall and TFC will need a greater return from the forward if Montreal continue their defensive system against Giovinco in preventing him from entering Montreal 18 yard box. Toronto was more successful dealing with crosses in the box, including the tying goal which saw Altidore chesting down a Giovinco cross to give Ricketts the opportunity in tying the game.
The X-factor in this series will be the substitutes, especially Didier Drogba’s influence on the series. Drogba did not participate in the game and the Impac’ts substitutes Johan Venegas, Anthony Jackson-Hamel and Calum Mallace had little to no influence on the game. Venegas is coming off a very successful victory with his national team Costa Rica against Altidore and Bradley’s United States National Team, while Drogba himself seems motivated to play. Both players demand the ball to be effective and I'm not sure Montreal's head coach Mauro Biello wants to change the system that brought the Impact this far.
However, if the Impact fall behind or need a goal to advance both players could have an influence on the final result. Expect Toronto to bring in Ricketts towards the end of the game while Will Johnson and Benoit Cheyrou can play a role in both helping Toronto on offense and defense if needed. Tsubasa Endoh did make an impact on the right wing as a sub in the 2-2 draw giving Toronto greater width and being the open man on a couple of shooting opportunities.
When doing my preseason previews for both teams I had no knowledge Cooper, Ricketts, and Barnardello would be playing in these Eastern Conference Final games and now can see them as key contributors in this series. Despite not having these key players in account, I valued each teams’ current group of players on the roster, but I also give respect to each teams’ management in terms of players they could add and how they set up.
Star players Giovinco, Altidore, Bradley, Piatti and Drogba should grab most of the headlines, while unsung heroes, some who I never mention such as Laurent Ciman and Drew Moor and keepers Clint Irwin and Evan Bush could affect the game easily as much. However, in many cases games are decided by tactics and it will be interesting to see who wins from Greg Vanney and Biello in bringing a Canadian team to its first MLS Cup Final.
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Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.
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