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Posted by
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March 3, 2017 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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My introduction to soccer was in the late 80's and the first work I did in soccer was during the 1994 World Cup. I have followed MLS since its inaugural season in 1996, then more closely with my hometown of Toronto getting an expansion team in 2007. I first wrote regarding the team for RedNation Online in 2012, and saw that expansion team reach a major final in 2016. I think it is fair to say all of our soccer history has changed, especially over the last decade.
For me, there was always something regarding the game of soccer that wanted me to be involved with it more than just a fan or an observer. Part of this was already understanding the structure of popular North American sports - how soccer seemed more grassroots and more inviting than the culture connected with sports such as hockey, basketball, football and baseball. I also saw the great potential of the sport within Canada and United States, as well as development in the game itself in terms of statistical analysis, scouting and player development.
The Soccer world is a lot different from when I first participated in the game and even since I first started writing for RedNation Online, not only in terms of how the game is followed and perceived, but also my own role. One of my favorite, and I feel most important annual articles I write, is players overlooked by MLS, which I didn't include this year. Not because I don't think that is the case this year, but because the players who I would of included in that list, I have discussed directly to and about with some MLS teams.
Some were signed, others were not, although the context of that article has changed. The league’s expectations have changed, so while there is some good potential talent in leagues like USL and hopefully one day the Canadian Premier League, they are not, in in my opinion, at the new MLS level. Although probably more reflective of recent signings by MLS, is the regions I thought were under-utilized by the league, including Canada, have also changed as more teams in MLS mean more players and a need for a greater scouting range.
The 2017 MLS season includes two new expansion teams: Atlanta and Minnesota. This made the demand for players this winter more competitive than any past season in MLS. Including Atlanta spending large amount of money on their new manager, former Argentina and Barcelona boss Gerardo Martino, as well as a number of players. Minnesota also made an impact signing, and was the player who was actually my first player in the overlooked articles, Kevin Molino, in the largest financial trade of a player within the league. The expansion teams were not the only clubs to splash the cash with signings and transfers, as close to 100 new signings from other professional leagues join MLS in 2017.
Part of this trend was started by Toronto FC when they signed Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore, and Michael Bradley, and although no team has yet to make that type of financial commitment, Toronto FC’s success in 2016 showed in some ways investing in your club financially can pay off. Teams who have made the biggest investment in 2017 beyond Atlanta and Minnesota are Chicago, Portland, Dallas, Vancouver and New York City FC, although every team in MLS brought in at least one foreign player this summer.
In my 2016 preview I put an emphasis on young developing talent and how beyond the Canadian MLS clubs I liked the Seattle Sounders, New York Red Bulls, and LA Galaxy as the teams leading in that development and who I had favorites last season. To be honest, it wasn't the youth that made these teams winners last season, although one key which I discussed was the extra salary cap space, which Seattle used in signing Nicolás Lodeiro and big reason they won the 2016 MLS Cup.
I feel this foreign influence will have a major role on the league in 2017, if not already the case highlighted by Montreal Impact starting nine non-North Americans in their lineup in the playoffs last year, something that might be more common this season. This might (and maybe should) raise some questions of outside of the soccer specific stadiums, what makes today's MLS any different from the much maligned original NASL?
To be fair, I do feel many of the new signings are better options than what existed domestically, and if the league wishes to go down that direction it does open the opportunity for signing both more established players in World Soccer and exciting young prospects. Although unlike prior seasons of big signings, there is not a high profile names like a David Beckham, Steven Gerrard and David Villa on the list. Instead we get new players such as Miguel Almiron, Maxi Moralez, Nemanja Nikolic, and Sebastián Blanco. While former MLS players Fredy Montero, Juninho and Brad Guzan also make a return to the league.
To me, this shows a maturity of an MLS audience that they are excited about their own club being better than just the big names, many of whom are past their prime. These new names are also players I've been aware of, promoted via ProspectXI and my other work for a number of years, and in the case of Almiron and FC Dallas new major signing Cristian Colman, I watched live in Hamilton with Paraguay at the 2015 Pan Am Games.
What this means for the 2017 MLS season, brings up many new questions in evaluating what might happen and like many seasons there is much uncertainty going into the 2017 season. In predicting the 2017 outcome, I rely on what I know be that past performances of MLS veterans in the league or the performances of new MLS players in their prior leagues. My 2017 MLS prediction, based on expected performance, is as follows.
I see Toronto FC as favorites and although other teams, such as New York City FC, can say Maxi Moralez is the new Giovinco, that has yet to be proven and he is still the most dominating player in the league. Both Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore are also top level players in MLS and new signings from last season Armando Cooper and Tosaint Ricketts, and this year Chris Mavinga and Victor Vazquez, only make them stronger.
The New York Red Bulls did lose Dax McCarty to Chicago, but they still have Bradley Wright-Phillips, Sascha Kljestan and a core of young players who are the best in the league, including McCarty potential replacement Sean Davis. Philadelphia would be a surprise third for most, although they recruited a decent core of European experienced players and although there is not really a star in the team, could have the strongest complete team outside of center backs if everyone is healthy.
My analysis doesn't have Chicago as a playoff team because of the big jump they would have to make this season, although I wouldn't count them out as I feel Nikolic will score. I'm a fan of David Accam and the midfield has improved with McCarty and Juninho. On the disappointing side of the East, it should be said that Orlando has a lot of money to add to Kaka and Cyle Larin, although defending and how the team works together is still an issue. I'm also not on the Atlanta bandwagon, and I think they will be fun to watch but in my view don't have the final product.
In the West, FC Dallas was a team I overlooked last season both for their talent and youth development, although unlike some of the struggling clubs in the MLS I do like Dallas' defense and how they work as a unit. I do think the injury to Mauro Diaz will hurt them and am also unsure how Colman and Roland Lamah will adapt to the league, although like many good MLS clubs they also have decent depth.
I feel both Portland and Seattle made improvements over the off-season and the Sounders also have Lodeiro for a complete season, as well as Clint Dempsey looking ready to return. Portland made a big off season signing in Sebastian Blanco and his combination with a healthy Diego Valeri and Darlington Nagabe with Fanendo Adi up front should give them one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
LA Galaxy lost Robbie Keane and Steve Gerrard as well as Manager Bruce Arena, but still have a lot of developed and new talent including Frenchman Romain Allesandrini, who I first identified as a prospect in 2012 in French League 2 with the likes of Riyad Mahrez. Like always, the rest of the West is always competitive for the final playoffs spots. I like Colorado's development moves, although I don't think they have enough scoring to be best in the west. While Sporting KC, Real Salt Lake and the Houston Dynamo have some new exciting talent but are not complete teams.
Vancouver would be the team I see having the biggest drop in 2017. I do like the signing of Fredy Montero and younger talent like Kakuta Manneh and Alphonso Davies, although I question the current roster having the capabilities to play as a unit, especially in controlling possession and the lack of discipline is also an issue. There is also things I like about Minnesota, although they have a tough ask in the competitive Western Conference.
Overall, I feel it will be an exciting season for MLS with many stories both positive and ones that may raise further concerns. However, I feel for the league to grow and maintain their now more educated soccer audience, player development risks will need to be taken. I would have preferred this new talent was American and Canadian and at some point soon this issue also needs to be addressed. For myself, it will be hard to top 2016, although I think ever since I first followed the sport I've said that every year.
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Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.
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