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Toronto FC's 2014 playoff hopes still hang in the balance, but pretty much every question will be answered after they face off against the Portland Timbers at BMO Field this Saturday. Toronto are still on the outside looking in after they managed to keep treading water through an important 3-0 win over Chivas USA last weekend. The Timbers come to town proving that the MLS season is not a sprint but a marathon, and they are beginning to really click down the final mile.
TFC are not in an enviable position with so much on the line. Trying to recapture form and confidence in the final month of the season is less than ideal, and when you are doing that against a team like Portland who are now growing with each passing week, it makes the challenge that much greater. Greg Vanney has a massive task ahead of him, and finding the right balance in his line up, as well as instilling supreme belief will only be the minimum requisite if Toronto are to come out with a result. Such is the importance of Saturday's game that a win is essential, a draw maintains life support and a loss will be the nail in the coffin for 2014.
Keep thinking
As most will have seen through this season, the formula when looking at the potential for a TFC result lays in recent form of individual players and the team as a whole. Normally a 3-0 victory at BMO Field would be cause for celebration and a moment to consider things are moving in the right direction. However, when that 3-0 win comes against a Chivas USA team who were winless in ten games, nine of which losses, and shut out in four of their last five games - well, there really is not much you can take from that result.
Yes, TFC did what they were supposed to do, but good teams do that and more. When framing this around the team's chances of not just squeaking into the playoffs but also being a legitimate contender, there is not much to go on from last Saturday that builds confidence when facing a team like Portland that performance can be replicated. The bright spots were of course the return of Steven Caldwell, who will be integral in bringing composure to the defence, and Gilberto's greater body of work through the season is beginning to tip the scales to him being an important pieces of the starting eleven.
However, as is often the case with Toronto, baggage has weighed down the club for eight years and 2014 has been no different. The last month has been undoubtedly a massive blow to the mentality of the players, who in the final stretch of the season likely don't know where they stand with a new head coach taking over and what their future at the club holds. Greg Vanney himself is in an unenviable position where he not only has to play psychiatrist to a team who had badly fallen off and in need of a confidence boost, but also must be a master tactician to get the most out of every game to keep the team competitive. Added to that, he is up against Caleb Porter, who at nearly the same age, has over a decade more coaching experience with accolades in tow.
As noted at the start, Portland are looking like another fine example of how the MLS season isn't about sprinting out of the gate, but being steady, finding consistency and making your move at the right time. The Timbers were regarded by many as real contenders in the Western Conference but began the season struggling to win games and had a staggering amount of draws. However, belief in a coach as well as a team being built the right way often sees through and now Portland are beginning to sprint to the finish line in fine form.
Their recent success is not dissimilar from what made them so good in 2013. Of the four teams in the 2013 MLS Cup semi-finals, three had the majority of their goals spread amongst three to five players, with the midfield an important component to the contribution. This will be a key to the match up as the duo of Will Johnson and Diego Valeri have been a perfect balance of technique and tenacity. While Diego Chara, Steve Zakuani and Khalif Alhassan have not been as dangerous, the options available make the Timbers midfield a threat at all times. Up top the emergence of Fanendo Adi has made up for a surprising season from Darlington Nagbe who has yet to score, while both Gaston Fernandez and Maxi Urruti have done well with 16 goals between them.
If there is perhaps a weakness with Portland it is inconsistency in the backline where only one player, Michael Harrington, has played over 20 games. Six other defenders have seen significant time and TFC should look to try and exploit a potential lack of cohesiveness. What this will require is the right mix in the midfield and allowing Michael Bradley to become more influential higher up the pitch, instead of acting as a sweeper. Gilberto has shown he can lurk inside the 18 yard box and finish and getting him his chances will be critical. This comes down to using home field as an advantage and being aggressive from the opening whistle.
Jonathan Osorio, Dwayne De Rosario, Kyle Bekker, Dominic Oduro and Daniel Lovitz all have strengths they bring to the table, and whoever starts needs to be positioned as such. If Lovitz is on the field, winning corner kicks and set pieces should be paramount. If Bekker is chosen, he should be allow to take the free kicks on goal, and if Vanney goes with De Rosario, who might be useful as a second half sub, giving him a free role behind Gilberto would likely produce the best results.
Vanney came with a plan against Chivas USA, but it is hard to gauge that performance as this was an opponent who has already checked out on the season. Portland will be determined to improve their hold on a playoff spot and even try to move up out of fifth place. TFC's home form has been awful, but it began when Steven Caldwell went down to injury in the 4-2 win over Houston. Perhaps a small part, but limited defensive mistakes could go a long way in finding a result. This game will answer all the questions and Vanney will need to start it off with the right tactical approach and mentality as anything less than a win will make the final five games of the season all must-wins.
In the end
With an important win last weekend Toronto FC earned a brief reprieve from what has been a poor two month stretch. However, that period saw them stumble out of a playoff position through awful home performances resulting in Ryan Nelsen being sacked and the coaching staff having a huge task ahead to save the season. Up against Portland this weekend, the window on the 2014 season is almost shut. TFC have yet to show they are a consistent contender each week, or most importantly impose themselves on opponents at BMO Field. Plainly put, it has to start this weekend or the final five games, while still mathematically in the picture, will in truth be a formality. While hope can still be clung to, and Toronto has the players to win this game, an honest prediction should be based on the precedents available. As of now there isn't enough from the last two months to say the Reds will come out on top against a formidable side such as the Timbers.
Prediction
Toronto FC 1 – 2 Portland Timbers
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