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Toronto FC are back home and looking to maintain their current run of positive results as they host New York City FC on Saturday night. A week bye for the Reds has allowed some rest and time to prepare the side to take on a team who have had some good performances of late. Recent displays from TFC have given supporters much to feel confident about as the team is firing on all cylinders, led by Sebastian Giovinco who is very much in full stride and punishing opponents with goals and assists.
Of Toronto's recent fixtures, this one might be a game circled for a certain result, however, New York have won two league games on the bounce and their DP striker, David Villa, appears to be settling in and playing to expectations. However, Jason Kreis has not been able to instill what was seen with Real Salt Lake and the connection between Kreis and TFC coach Greg Vanney will be an interesting sub plot to this tilt. Even with the prestige around Kreis in MLS, this could be a statement match for Vanney as Toronto should be favourites to take all three points at BMO Field.
Keep thinking
Heading into their last fixture, away to DC United, expectations were tempered as the top side in the East, and in a formidable home stadium as well, meant any points would be looked with positivity. Added to the match was Michael Bradley away for USMNT duty and Jozy Altidore returning from injury. TFC supporters have already bought in on how good Giovinco is, but in MLS away games are notoriously the separator between good teams and average ones. For TFC to not only win at DC, but Giovinco to essentially put in a top level performance away from home signals even further what we have on our hands in terms of a designated player.
TFC's performance at DC is another step in confirming the team might finally have the roster make up correct, or at least the starting eleven. There is no question who is running the show and the Red's success based on, and that is the performances of Giovinco. It is not an overstatement to say without him the team would be average, but with him he has raised the play of everyone around him and served as the final piece of the puzzle to turning Toronto into a playoff calibre team. What has been most important from his performances of late has been the role he's had with Luke Moore up top and Michael Bradley serving as the link up player in the final third. This formation will be something to watch, if the return of Altidore changes where Giovinco operates or if he is allowed to continue in his current role.
This will be essential for another good home display as Toronto are up against a calibre of opponent not much different than what they've faced at BMO so far. The Reds have yet to host a real contender, but have only had one match that could be described as a throughout result, a 3-1 win over San Jose.
New York City FC come to BMO Field on a decent run of form, even if the opponents have been some of the poorer sides in MLS. Montreal, Philadelphia and Houston are their last three league opponents, with the latest win against an in-form Montreal Impact. There would have been much fanfare around NYCFC picking up Jason Kreis and of course signing marquee DPs, however, an MIA Frank Lampard has no doubt effected their potential and it has been left to David Villa to carry the load.
The hallmark of New York's recent run has been an ability to score late and their subs making an impact. David Villa has looked better and had a strong outing against Montreal. With Patrick Mullins up top as well, there is danger for Toronto, but in truth there can be questions around New York's midfield and whether it can compete with TFC. Without Lampard, one looks to Mix Diskerud, but after that it is MLS calibre players such as Andrew Jacobson, Ned Grabavoy and Mehdi Balouchy, who might not offer as much as Michael Bradley and Benoit Cheyrou are at the moment. While Josh Saunders has had a good career in the league, there is no question he presents an opportunity for TFC to score goals as defending will be an area to try and exploit.
The two x-factors to watch for in this match are of course the match up of Jason Kreis vs. Greg Vanney. From their time together at Real Salt Lake, Vanney has now graduated to a senior team and both leading clubs with deep pockets and world class names. As it stands, Vanney is coming ahead more to do with better overall quality and it will be interesting to see if Kreis can call upon any experience to give him an edge. Aside from that, it has been some time since there has been an opportunity to lament the refereeing, but that could change with Allen Chapman getting the call on Saturday. The list of referees in the league who are consistently fair are few and TFC will need to be mindful that Chapman is not one of them.
For the Reds, one would expect that to get a good result they will simply need to keep doing what they've been doing. The only hitch is that it was without Jozy Altidore and whether the team or the player adapts upon return. Given how Luke Moore performed, as well as it allowing Giovinco to really shine, Vanney should do the wise approach and adjust the team around the Italian rather than make Altidore the focal point of the attack. If they can set up top together, as seen in the San Jose game, there should be no doubt both Giovinco and Altidore will benefit. This will be a game, and Toronto becoming a team, that can determine the outcome with goals. While defending is still an area to watch, keeping the attack firing on all cylinders is what will ensure the Red notch another win and move higher up in the Eastern Conference.
In the end
Toronto FC have been in a rare run of top form, thanks to the outstanding displays from Giovinco who right now can't be stopped. New York have looked better of late, and especially David Villa appears to be playing at the level expected of him. Both sides will need to be well aware of both players as they could change the game in an instant. However, for New York, who are still missing Frank Lampard, they have good players but not ones who can match up with TFC's. What has been the difference of late, and finally seen through on the Reds player advantage is the right tactical approach from Greg Vanney allowing Giovinco to play further forward and Michael Bradley support. The last home win served as a good precedent to follow, and if Altidore can slot into Luke Moore's role, it should be three more points for Toronto.
Prediction
Toronto FC 3 – 1 New York City FC
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