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Arguably the biggest obstacle of Toronto FC's 2015 season is now over, and they will finally play at BMO Field Sunday afternoon as they host the Houston Dynamo. The Reds are coming off of two league wins on the bounce, and through the seven game road stretch to start the season suddenly looks like they have come out on top. Houston are not in an as fortunate situation as they've been playing at home for most of their opening ten games, but only managed two wins out of seven, and have not won since defeating Montreal 3-0 in early April.
TFC have already been a roller coaster of emotions in the early going of the MLS season, with a bright opening game win, four losses in a row, and now two back to back. Perhaps the one positive to come out of these games, aside from three wins, is a clear picture of who can be counted on and where the team stands in the big picture of MLS. Most critically, this weekend it should allow supporters to gauge how they should do against an opponent such as Houston, who have struggled for results so far this season.
Keep thinking
While the most recent result for Toronto was a 1-0 loss to Montreal in the Voyageurs' Cup, it is last weekend's win over Philadelphia and previous 2-0 win over Orlando that shows more accurately what this team has to offer and where they sit in the league. On the road, against an expansion team with history in USL Pro, and Philadelphia a true rival, to come away with two wins shows that there is an edge the Reds have that can see them through tough opposition.
Most obviously, the first seven games of the season has seen Giovinco settle in and begin to deliver on a superior level of technique only a handful possess in MLS. Looking back, there is no shame in losing to FC Dallas and Columbus on the road, and to be close with Real Salt Lake and Chicago, perhaps gives indication this team is better than the four game losing streak indicated.
Now with a slew of home games approaching, there is a real opportunity for TFC to replicate what was seen with Sporting Kansas City back in 2011 and Houston in 2012 - which was a tough road streak to begin the year, but establish their new stadium as a fortress and go on to playoff appearances.
Traditionally, Houston would not be the most ideal opponent to kick off a home opener, however, this is not quite the Dynamo side from the past decade. In last year's home fixture against the Dynamo, TFC bounced back after a poor start to the game to put in one of their best performances in a 4-2 win, and it seems like the departure of Dominic Kinnear, who was replaced by the experienced Owen Coyle, has not yet brought positive results.
The usual suspects will need to be paid close attention to - Brad Davis, Ricardo Clark and Boniek Garcia in the midfield, and a good tandem in the attack of Will Bruin bringing size and Giles Barnes all out goalscoring capabilities. As is a familiar issue with TFC this season, the Dynamo are being let down in defending as there is not the anchor at the back the likes seen during their best years of late.
Toronto FC and Greg Vanney should be coming into this fixture with real confidence. Houston lost their last two home games and have yet to win away this season. While they have played tougher opposition than Toronto in LA, Seattle and DC United, there is the added intangible of a home opener that will buoy TFC.
Of late, Vanney has gotten his tactics right and this game will come down to ensuring some of the weaker links aren't isolated. Moving Justin Morrow to right back has been a huge positive to have a proper fullback replacing Warren Creavalle, and also allowed Ashtone Morgan to regain his confidence at left back. There is no question the middle of the park is Toronto's strength as Michael Bradley brings his engine, while Benoit Cheyrou has quietly been the key link up player between the defence and Giovinco.
While Toronto still have yet to put in what one might call a comprehensive 90 minute display, the fact they've come away with three wins in those circumstances speaks volumes. Most specifically that there are key players who can turn the game on it's head in a moment. Jozy Altidore, Giovinco and Cheyrou are the heart of this team right now and as long as all three remain healthy, there is no reason to think starting this Sunday could be the beginning of re-establishing fortress BMO.
In the end
With what can only be described as a nightmare schedule to start the season, TFC have come out in a good position with three wins from seven games on the road. BMO Field has been anything but a home field advantage for the past few years, but with momentum on their side there is a real sense that the key players for the team are coming together to deliver results. Good player performances have been seen on the road, now the test is if BMO Field can bring what lifted the team in 2008 and 2009 to have a strong home record. Houston have traditionally been a tough opponent for the Reds, however, have not looked threatening outside of their marquee players. If the side is prepared and the key players noted deliver what has been on display for the last few week, Toronto should be looking at their third win in a row.
Prediction
Toronto FC 2 – 1 Houston Dynamo
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