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Posted by
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March 7, 2015 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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@ENBSports
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The 2015 MLS season was always going to be a season of change and uncertainty, especially when it comes to previewing and projecting what will happen. Two new expansion teams who show signs of trying to compete from the start, including the signing of top shelf designated players, the folding of Chivas USA who almost always finished near the bottom of the standings, and the moving of two of the traditional stronger teams in the East, Sporting KC and Houston Dynamo, to the Western Conference.
The league has also increased the number of playoffs teams from 10 to 12, which historically means a tighter league as teams do not need to go all out to make the playoffs, and because of this less games earlier in the season matter. We add to this, players might be called on international duty for the Gold Cup, Olympic Qualifying and even Pan Am games, which could take players away from their MLS clubs.
Despite all of these unknown factors I'm still willing, with the help of some statistical models and complete history of all players in MLS, including new ones from college and elsewhere, to go on the line and predict how I see all MLS teams finishing and their projected goal totals and allowed for this season. I’m no longer working, or very active, in the betting market that I traditionally used this model to give me an advantage, especially early in the season when other statistical models are less effective. However, as a scouting tool I find it useful today especially evaluating players in new scenarios like moving from another professional league to MLS.
Last year the model did well. It projected eight out of the ten playoff teams with the Canadian teams being two of the odd teams out as it had Toronto not only in the playoffs but winning the East and Vancouver outside of the playoffs behind Portland. The model also had LA Galaxy and Seattle as the two best teams in the league and projected the improvements of teams such as New England and DC United and showed the struggles of Montreal and San Jose. It also has historically had good success in regards to predicting other major leagues around the world, even up against experts opinion who follow the league on a day to day basis.
The parity expected in the league is noticeable with very little goal difference separating most teams, and arguably based on these results, clubs outside of Montreal, San Jose and NYCFC, all have playoff potential for the 2015 season. The biggest surprise is probably the projected struggles of teams who people are expecting more from. I'm sure people will disagree with Montreal and Vancouver (despite Vancouver projected to make the playoffs), although bigger surprises would be the struggling clubs such as Sporting KC, Salt Lake and Houston. Although Houston’s projection has been affected by not being sure when Cubo Torres will join the club and Sporting KC and Salt Lake are rumored to add players which would change the results of the model.
On the positive side, the biggest surprise is Chicago. However, if you look at the off season moves they made this winter in signing DPs Shaun Maloney and David Accam, as well as Kennedy Igboananike, do Pardo, Adailton, and Jon Busch, perhaps it begins to make more sense. If Harrison Shipp can duplicate his rookie performances and Mike Magee and Patrick Nyarko are relatively healthy, the Fire should not only have one of the strongest starting elevens, but also one of the strongest benches as well.
New England and Columbus also made good moves with New England having Jermaine Jones for the whole season and signing Juan Agudelo. While Columbus will have Emmanuel Pogatetz from the start and added Kei Kamara, Mohammed Saeid and Kristin Steindorsson to an improving team. The LA Galaxy and Seattle I feel will take a slight decline after losing key players, but their combination of starters and prospects should make them the strongest in the West. While Portland has to deal with injuries, but improved their defense and have Adi for the full season and more is expected from Darlington Nagabe.
I think both expansion teams will be interesting to follow although it’s difficult seeing the teams gelling enough to make the playoffs as they have limited experience playing together as a team or have the depth of other clubs. David Vila is projected to being a double digit goal scorer, while Kaka should provide an equal amount of goals and assists, but not numbers that will lead the league. I expect both Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard to be successful in MLS, although based on the amount of regular season games they are expected to play not to make a huge impact on the standings.
Despite the loss of Thierry Henry, Bradley Wright-Phillips is projected to be the league’s top goalscorer again with others in the running being Chicago's Accam, the Crew’s Kamara, LA's Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes, NYCFC's Villa, San Jose's Chris Wondolowski, Seattle's Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins, Sporting KC’s Dom Dwyer and Toronto FC’s Jozy Altidore.
In terms of MLS fantasy I have put a team together from the MLSSoccer site based on projected statistics and best value and this is my team.
I'm very high on Kamara and Accam, I feel Toronto FC’s Giovinco will attain double digits in both goals and assists, Montreal’s Laurent Ciman and Chicago's Jeff Larentowicz have a history of providing offense as a defender and Bradford Jamieson, Cyle Larin, Kevin Molino, Leo Stolz, Walker Zimmerman, Boyd Okwounu, and Axel Sjoberg are all young players who I feel will make a name for themselves in MLS this season. I do like Vancouver's Ben McKendry, although I don't think he will play that much but he is the best player at the lowest cost option to fit within the salary cap.
As a fantasy experience I still have issues with the engine which will probably lead me to lose interest quickly and not make any transfers during the season, but I have been lucky enough to be invited to an independent game that included a draft and dedicated commissioner and group players. I still believe that fantasy leagues add to the soccer experience and if you want ideas or suggestions for the MLSSoccer game feel free sending a tweet at @ENBSports and I be happy to give my two cents.
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