No pressure. Toronto FC are rested and ready for a pivotal Eastern Conference fixture as they host the New England Revolution Saturday afternoon. The Reds were at one point in an excellent position in the table, with games in hand, but that advantage has all but withered away and now this match has become must-win if they are to control third place in the table. New England began the year looking like one of the most fearsome offensive teams in the league, but have had some awful form and only recently found a bit more consistency.
Toronto are a team, on paper, that should be amongst the best or at least competing with them. Instead, since the World Cup break, they have been inconsistent - they've surprised on the road, but dropped critical points at home. Most recently they could not put away the eigth placed Chicago Fire at BMO and now New England arrives with more offensive weapons and recent DP signing USMNT midfielder Jermaine Jones. There is no two ways to cut it - TFC wins and they get some breathing room, drop points again and there is a risk of being in a real dogfight for a playoff position.
Keep thinking
Despite having a week off heading into this fixture, unfortunately that won't be enough time to recoop key players for Toronto's defence. Out from last weekend are Steven Caldwell (again) and Justin Morrow, two calming influences in this 2014 season. A reason why this is so important to lead off with for this match is the growing realization that TFC's issues of dropping points and ground in the Eastern Conference is coming from the back.
One only needs to look back at the 4-1 loss to Sporting Kansas City where two goals came from penalties and the other two from set pieces. Then Chicago's 2-2 draw last weekend where both goals came from near identical crosses and poor marking. The question raised is how much falls on the shoulders of Joe Bendik who is charged with being a commanding voice in the back and organizing those in front of him, or that two centre backs in Doneil Henry and Nick Hagglund likely both still need a veteran presence to mitigate their youthful exuberance and comparative inexperience?
Whatever the answer is, Ryan Nelsen needs to solve it quick because New England arrives at BMO Field not necessarily in fine form, but one with multiple attacking options from all areas of the pitch. TFC supporters will recall Patrick Mullins beating Julio Cesar in a 2-1 loss back in May, and along with him up top is Teal Bunbury and Charlie Davies who are supplemented with Diego Fagundez, Steve Neumann, Lee Nguyen and Kelyn Rowe. Not all of those players have been putting up huge goal scoring numbers, however, Chicago had a similar story coming into last week's game and managed to score two goals for the first time in over two months.
All those options are a bit of a surprise as New England was top heavy last season and still added Mullins and Neumann in the SuperDraft. One would forgive them for not shoring up their defence given how well they looked in 2013. Jose Goncalves lead the way last season along with rookie Andrew Ferrell looking the part right out of the gate. However, this season they have not been as stingy and what has marked this year for them is a seven game losing streak that they finally broke just a month ago. While their recent string of results has not been consistent, they have scored in all games, but yet to win on the road this month.
There is no question looking back to last weekend, and hindsight is 20/20, that the Jackson at rightback experiment should be over. With Bradley Orr on the bench and experienced on the backline this season, as well as Nick Hagglund at right back, the pieces are there to at the very least offer players who are more familiar with defensive roles. What is most concerning though from last week and recently is a lack of organization in what should be routine situations. From corner kicks to crosses in from out wide, Toronto has had difficulty with awareness and marking players coming in from the midfield or from the opposite flank.
It would seem obvious but this tilt is a match up of the two offenses and which group of defenders can withstand the onslaught. In the midfield it is a more balanced affair as looking at the likes of Bradley/Osorio/Oduro is countered by Jones/Nguyen/Fagundez. But this one will likely come down to getting the most out of the forwards and capitalizing on chances. TFC has been able to produce opportunities, as Dominic Oduro has been a menace since his arrival, but has not gone to goal as often as one would hope. Gilberto has been red hot, and this has been needed as Jermain Defoe has been injured and his first game back last weekend was not his best display for the club.
While it seems obvious, Toronto's two biggest issues of late has been defensive lapses and not being clinical with opportunities on goal. The chances on goal should come with it being a home game, but defensive lapses is something common at BMO Field. Shoring up the back and having the best players on hand will be essential to a result and ensuring TFC remains near the top and not fighting for that last playoff spot.
In the end
Just over a month ago there was plenty of optimism about Toronto's games in hand and spot in the table. Now they only have a game in hand and dropped points have piled up to leave them vulnerable. New England normally would be seen as a sure thing for a win at home, but Chicago's draw last weekend showed that even against one of the worst teams in the league, TFC can find a way to unravel. This match will show alot for supporters of what this team is mentally made of, as it could be the pivotal fixture that either propels them towards the playoffs, or makes life difficult with every game turning into do or dies. Toronto should have the quality to set things straight, but until they begin showing more clinical displays at home it is hard to determine who they will get a win against.
Prediction
Toronto FC 1 – 1 New England Revolution
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