Since 2009 I've been doing player evaluation for all NCAA Division 1 soccer players, which is a very popular aspect of my blog and twitter account. The main purpose for this is understanding the prospects for the yearly draft, as in a lot ways the MLS is like other North American pro sports where success on the field is based on generating talent by either draft depth or trading for it. The greater amount of prospects you have, or players other teams want, the greater amount of room you have to improve your team both at the beginning and throughout the season.
For the players in this year's draft I've tabulated data from every box score since their college/PDL career started. Last summer I put a list together with profiles like other pro sports of players who should be top prospects going in this season draft based on their performances so far. Toronto FC happened to draft players who were all on this list.
My greatest concern with Toronto has been their lack of depth. This is why the past few seasons I predicted them to struggle, which unfortunately has been the case. Although with this draft I do see vision, direction and potential in SuperDraft picks Kyle Bekker and Emery Welshman as well as Supplemental Draft picks Ashton Bennett, Nik Robson, Jose Gomez and Taylor Morgan. This doesn't mean these players will excel, or even play in the MLS. It just means through analysis we know what these players potentially offer, and almost as important, how Toronto can use them to improve the club.
I've already expressed my concerns for Bekker and Welshman. By no means do I think they are bad players; my concern is after showing so much potential going into the 2012 college season, neither player overly impressed this year and both their respective schools' had poor 2012 seasons. Also in retrospect, Toronto could have drafted Carlos Alvarez and Walker Zimmerman, who I feel were the two best players in the draft and have the greatest upside. Alvarez is almost a sure thing and Zimmerman potentially could be a future starting center back for the US National Team. In addition, depth in defense wasn't improved and although I like Ashtone Morgan, Doneil Henry and Gale Agbossoumonde, another prospect in defense would have brought added competition and security.
I projected both Jose Gomez and Ashton Bennett to be drafted in the first two rounds and although there is some concern regarding foreign status with Gomez being Mexican/American and Bennett being Jamaican, both can qualify as domestic players quite easily. If you don't draft Alvarez, Mikey Lopez, and Dillon Powers early, which Toronto chose to do, Jose Gomez is the next best thing in the midfield with legitimate offensive skills. It seems to me Toronto are going to play a 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2, having Gomez, Bekker, and Silva compete for those attacking midfield positions will be exciting to look forward to this upcoming season.
Ashton Bennett is a proven goalscorer at the college level scoring 74 goals in 80 games. Originally I projected Montreal would draft him because he was one of the more proven assets in the draft and seems like a more useful player now than someone who has a long term potential. I think what he offers is depth if Kovermans gets hurt, Hasili decides not to play or more worrying plays poorly. Bennett can hopefully provide that goal off the bench or a decent forward option if needed in a starting role.
Nik Robson, like Welshman, started his career at another school before transferring to a more established soccer program later to improve his draft potential. Robson played for Central Florida where he scored 28 goals 56 games, mostly as a second striker, then moved to New Mexico in 2012 scoring 5 goals in 22 games (10 of them coming off the bench). He spent much of the season in Blake Smith and Devon Sandoval shadow. I guess the most interesting tidbit about Robson based on TFC's new coach Ryan Nelsen is Nik is also from New Zealand.
To me TFC's most interesting pick was there last selection in Taylor Morgan who I've been high on for a couple of seasons. Although when he was not invited to the combine I thought he had no chance of being drafted, so I actually contacted a few performance analysis people from lower teams in England telling them that they should look at this player. The thing that stands out the most about Morgan is his size - 6'5/185. Like a Peter Crouch he isn't pretty to watch but has shown the ability to score as well as create havoc for defenders. I still think the chances of Morgan making TFC is quite slim partly because he is foreign but if he does play you will certainly notice him.
It was interesting that many teams didn't follow my draft philosophy and in my opinion went totally off the board with the other Canadian teams leading the way. This means there are still players such as Goalkeepers Jordan Godsey and Scott Goodwin, Defenders Shaun Foster and Caleb Konstanski, Midfielders Dion Acoff and Jack Bennett, and Forwards Patrick Wallen and Andy Lubahn that Toronto could now invite as Free Agents. Any of these players could provide much needed depth, or at least greater competition in preseason.
Even if none of these players, or the ones chosen in this year's draft end up making an impact on the first team, I'm happy I can write a positive article regarding TFC and hopefully this is a sign that the club is starting to understand what it takes to be successful in the MLS.
Aaron Nielsen has worked within the soccer/sports industry for over 15 years. His statistical analysis brings the beautiful game in a whole new light. The detailed player data and prospect lists he produces are used by many scouts, agents, and football insiders around the world.
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