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April 12, 2013 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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There is a lot of optimism heading into the 2013 USL Pro Season. The league has forged a deal with MLS in the potential creation of a proper minor league system in soccer, which should allow players to properly develop from high school/college through to the top flight. Although regarded as sacrilegious by many true football fans around the world, I think most North American soccer fans support this venture of minor leagues, as we are familiar with systems in other sports such as Hockey and Baseball and would argue it’s the most successful developmental system in sports.
Although at this point it's difficult to tell how easy the transition will be. Only four MLS teams have decided to affiliate with USL Pro teams during the 2013 season, with each MLS team loaning out four players to their respective USL Pro team. It is interesting to see that these teams are also regarded as the favorites going into the 2013 USL Pro Season, although the reason for this, in my opinion, is a combination of additional MLS talent but beyond that these are the best run clubs in the league.
Below are my predictions and analysis for each team competing in the 2013 USL Pro season.
ANTIGUA BARRACUDA
2012: 5-18-1 (12th in regular season)
Head Coach: Tom Curtis
MLS connection: No association. Will play FC Dallas and San Jose
Key Returners: Orlando Mitchum M (22GP 1G 2A), George Dublin D (21GP), Tamorley Thomas M (20GP 1G)
Key Newcomers: None
Analysis: The Antigua Barracuda's were created under an interesting concept and an idea that many Canadian MLS fans might take to heart. Antigua FA lacked competitive games to allow players to develop so they created a USL Pro club made entirely of Antigua nationals. They were rewarded in 2012 as the national side beat Trinidad & Tobago in the Caribbean Cup, which they hosted in front of 2000 supporters. The problem is the better players such as Peter Byers, Stefan Smith and Quinton Griffith have since left the USL Pro club for more lucrative opportunities leaving a team that looks completely outmatched going into this season.
2013 Prediction: 13th Place
CHARLESTON BATTERY
2012: 12-10-2 (3rd in regular season - Playoff Champions)
Head Coach: Michael Anheuser
MLS connection: No association. Will play Houston Dynamo
Key Returners: Jose Cuevas M (22GP 7G 3A), Nicki Paterson F (24GP 10G 3A), Colin Falvey D (22GP 1G)
Key Newcomers: Quinton Griffith D (22GP 3G 1A - Antigua), Jared Van Shaik M (25GP 1G 3A - Puerto Rico NASL)
Analysis: Last season’s playoff winners have yet to make arrangement with an MLS club team so at the start of the season they will have no players in on loan. They also lost a couple of key players from the 2012 side, including the recent move of Ryan Richter to Toronto FC in MLS. The club still has playoff MVP and prospect Jose Cuevas as well as Scottish striker Nicki Paterson, who scored 10 goals last season. New signing Quinton Griffith and Jared Van Shaik will try to fill in some missing holes to allow the Battery another playoff run.
2013 Prediction: 4th Place
CHARLOTTE EAGLES
2012: 11-10-3 (7th in regular season)
Head Coach: Mark Steffans
MLS connection: No Association. Will play Chicago Fire
Key Returners: Eric Reed GK (21GP), Juan Guzman M (22GP 2G), Nathan Thornton F (23GP 3G)
Key Newcomers: Shaun Francis (Columbus MLS), Drew Yates M (21GP 1G with Harrisburg), Matt Gold M (8GP with San Antonio NASL)
Analysis: The Charlotte Eagles have been a part of the USL football system for more than 20 years with a steady rise to USL Pro. The club is a division of a local missionary and has had the same coach Mark Steffens since 1997. Not really an example of the new American soccer franchise and probably not a club an MLS team will want to associate with. That being said, the 2013 team has managed to recruit former MLS players Shaun Francis from the Columbus Crew and Matt Gold, whose name will be known by the most extreme Toronto FC fans. Along with steady Goalkeeping of Eric Reed, Charlotte should do enough this season to make the playoffs.
2013 Prediction: 7th Place
DAYTON DUTCH LIONS
2012: 4-10-10 (9th in regular season)
Head Coach: Ivar van Dinteren
MLS connection: No Association. Will play Columbus Crew
Key Returners: Gibson Bardsley F (21GP 5G 1A), Joel Delass M (24GP 1G 1A), Matthew Williams GK (24GP), Gregory Preciado D (24GP)
Key Newcomers: Adama Mbengue M (11GP with Orlando), Eddie Hertsenberg, M
Analysis: The Lions surprised a few by being competitive as they were in 2012. By bringing back 2012 USL Pro prospect Gibson Bardsle, they will try to improve on this performance. Although the club still has much to do to be respected in the American soccer landscape: the team plays in a high school stadium, averages less than 1000 supporters per game, and have only won six games in the last two seasons. One way they can improve things is by associating themselves with a MLS club, however, being owned by a Dutch Sports Management company it’s unsure an MLS club will want to do that.
2013 Prediction: 12th Place
HARRISBURG CITY ISLANDERS
2012: 10-7-7 (6th in regular season - lost in 1st Round)
Head Coach: Bill Becher
MLS connection: Philadelphia Union farm team. Will play Colorado
Key Returners: Lucky Mkosana F (16GP 7G 1A), Nick Noble GK (24GP), Yann Ekra F (21GP 6G 1A), Jason Pelletier M (23GP 3A)
Key Newcomers: Greg Jordan M, Cristian Hernandez F, Jimmy McLaughlin M (on loan from Philadelphia)
Analysis: Harrisburg has had a relationship with MLS club, Philadelphia Union, prior to the new deal between USL Pro and MLS. 2013 loanees Greg Jordan and Jimmy McLaughlin already have USL Pro experience from last season and should fit into the side quite easily. Unfortunately for the Islanders, the Union don't have the same depth as other MLS clubs, and the loss of Bilal Duckett may cause Harrisburg to struggle, but they should have enough talent to make the playoffs.
2013 Prediction: 5th Place
LOS ANGELES BLUES
2012: 9-12-3 (8th in regular season)
Head Coach: Jesus Rico Sanz (New Coach)
MLS connection: No Association. Will play LA Galaxy
Key Returners: Allan Russell F (20GP 2G 2A), Cory Miller D (19GP), Ricky Waddell M (11GP 1G 1A)
Key Newcomers: Rodrigo Lopez (former NASL player)
Analysis: It is difficult to understand how the Los Angeles Blues can be a success. Lost among the soccer community against two MLS Clubs, the Blues have one of the worst attendance of any professional football club in the World (1072nd - 2011-2012 World Football Clubs Average Attendance Rankings). This season the club has brought in Warren Barton who has acquired a number of players from his former club, NPSL side San Diego Flash. Last season the team’s success depended on loan players, the key one being Portland Bright Dike, so maybe long-term MLS association potentially with the Timbers can at least make the team competitive on the field.
2013 Prediction: 10th Place
ORLANDO CITY
2012: 17-1-6 (1st in regular season - lost in semis)
Head Coach: Adrian Heath
MLS connection: Sporting KC farm team. Will play Seattle Sounders
Key Returners: Dennis Chin F (24GP 11G 2A), Kevin Molino M (23GP 3G, 6A), Luke Boden D (21GP 2A), Jean Alexandre M (6GP 2G)
Key Newcomers: Dom Dwyer F, Yann Song'o D, Jon Kempin GK, Christian Duke MF (on loan from SKC), Freddie Braun M (Portland MLS), Long Tan F (DC United MLS)
Analysis: Orlando will be heavy favorites. They kept Chin, Molino, and Boden, who were in my top 10 USL pro prospect list, and have former MLS players Jean Alexandre, Freddie Braun, Long Tan, to go along with Anthony Pulis, who is son of the Stoke City manager in the EPL. On top of this, Orlando made an agreement with Sporting KC to be a farm club of the MLS team and will include four players on loan, including 2012 Draft Prospect Dom Dwyer and Yann Songo'o who played in Spain. There are also rumors that Orlando are favorites to become one of the next MLS franchise and have acquired investment as well as plans to build a new stadium.
2013 Prediction: Champions
PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS
2012: 4-15-5 (10th in regular season)
Head Coach: Justin Evans
MLS connection: No Association. Will play Toronto FC
Key Returners: Hunter Giltrap GK (22GP), Sterling Flunder D (24GP), Mike Seth D (23GP 2G 2A), Louie Rolko M (23GP)
Key Newcomers: Jhonny Arteaga F (New York MLS), Anthony Vasquez D (17GP 1G with Puerto Rico NASL), Michael Seasmon M (Seattle MLS), Andrew Marshall D (21GP 1A with Harrisburg)
Analysis: In many ways, the Riverhounds are trying to follow a similar model the Montreal Impact have in terms of developing the club into a potential MLS expansion team. The issue is, unlike the Impact, the team has failed both on the field and in the stands with an attendance average of only 984 per game in 2012. This season Pittsburgh has moved into a new soccer-specific stadium and have brought in some interesting signings including Jhonny Arteaga and Michael Seasmon, who have MLS experience. Pittsburgh have yet to associate with an MLS club, and even though Orlando has, it does bring up an interesting question: does going the route of a "minor league team" hurt your chances of becoming a future MLS franchise?
2013 Prediction: 8th place
PHOENIX FC
2012: Expansion Team
Head Coach: David Robertson
MLS connection: No Association. Will play Real Salt Lake
Key Newcomers: Darren Mackie F (19GP 1G with Abderdeen SPL), Devon Grousis D, (17GP 2G with Charlotte), Andrew Weber GK, (Seattle (MLS), Scott Morrisson D, Aarron King F)
Analysis: Phoenix is an expansion team in USL Pro this season. Unlike VSI Tampa Bay, Phoenix is trying to grab onto the supporter culture that has been so successful in the MLS the past few years and with NASL club San Antonio last season. The club already played its first home game, selling out with an attendance of over 4,000 in a win over VSI. On the field, the club is coached by well known Glasgow Rangers defender David Robertson. He brought in fellow SPL legend Darren Mackie who scored 60 goals with Aberdeen. The rest of the side is a mixture of players including some veterans, most significant being Devon Grousis, and unproven players including four Brazilans. It is hard to tell how well Phoenix will perform but with Andrew Weber being the only player with MLS experience I feel they'll struggle to make the playoffs.
2013 Prediction: 9th place
RICHMOND KICKERS
2012: 11-8-5 (4th in regular season - lost in 1st Round)
Head Coach: Leigh Cowlishaw
MLS connection: DC United farm team. Will play Vancouver
Key Returners: Sascha Gorres D (24GP 1G 3A), Luke Vercollone D (24GP 2G), William Yomby D (18GP 4G)
Key Newcomers: Talyor Kemp D, Conor Shanosky M, Casey Townsend F, Michael Seaton F (on loan from DC United) Brian Ownby (on loan from Houston)
Analysis: The 2013 Richmond Kickers should be the success story from the new MLS/USL Pro arrangement, now the farm club of DC United, an MLS club with good depth and youth policy. On loan from DC United will be 2013 Draft Prospect Taylor Kemp, 2012 Draft Prospect Casey Townsend, Conor Shanosky who was in my 2012 top 10 NASL prospect list, as well as 16 year old Jamaican prospect Michael Seaton. They have also taken Houston Dynamo Brain Ownby on loan. The team already has veteran defense and midfield that includes Canadian Philippe Davies.
2013 Prediction: 3rd place
ROCHESTER RHINOS
2012: 12-7-5 (2nd in regular season - lost in semis)
Head Coach: Jesse Myers
MLS connection: New England Revolution farm team. Will play Montreal
Key Returners: JC Banks M (22GP 5G 7A), Troy Roberts D (24GP), Kristian Nicht GK (22GP), Tyler Rosenlund M (23GP 2G 1A), Danny Earls M (24GP 2G 3A)
Key Newcomers: Matt Horth F, Tyler Polak D, Bilal Duckett D, Gebe Latigue M (on loan from New England) Blake Brettschneider F (New England MLS), Tony McManus M, (21GP with Atlanta NASL)
Analysis: Rochester, who have great soccer history, finished second during the 2012 regular season. 2013’s club sees the return of my 2012 USL Pro prospects JC Banks and Troy Roberts, Goalkeeper Kritian Nicht, and Canadian International and former Toronto FC midfielder Tyler Rosenlund. The Rhinos will also be the farm club for New England, which brings additional 2012 Prospects Matt Horth and Bilal Duckett, as well as 2012 Generation Adidas player Tyler Polak into the side on loan. Also former New England Revolution player Blake Brettschneider joins Rochester on a free transfer.
2013 Prediction: 2nd place
VSI TAMPA BAY
2012: Expansion Team
Head Coach: Matt Weston
MLS connection: No Association. Will play Portland Timbers
Key Newcomers: Andriy Budniy F (18GP 8G with Wilmington), Tony Donatelli M (20GP 3G 4A with Charleston), JT Noone M (22GP 2G 2A with Harrisburg), Alex Howarth GK (24GP with Wilmington), Josh Rife M (24GP 2G with Charlotte), Darren Toby M (23GP 1G with Charlotte), Maurcio Salles (22GP 3G 4A with Charlotte)
Analysis: VSI Tampa Bay will be an expansion team to USL Pro in 2013 and are run by English soccer development academy VisonPro Sports Institute, hence the name. Despite the club not having a full-time stadium or expecting great fan support, they still brought in a group of players with decent US soccer experience. The team will be led by Andriy Budniy, who has scored over 20 goals in USL Pro Soccer, and old Vancouver Whitecaps/Montreal Impac favorite Tony Donatelli. Fellow USL Pro team Dayton is developed under similar concept and has failed to make an impact so it will be interesting to see how VSI progress. I would be more excited seeing a team full of prospects who recently graduated from college.
2013 Prediction: 6th place
WILMINGTON HAMMERHEADS
2012: 10-7-7 (5th in regular season - lost in finals)
Head Coach: David Irving
MLS connection: No Association. Will play New York Red Bulls
Key Returners: Bryce Taylor M (24GP 5G 2A), Paul Nicholson D (20GP 1G 1A), Mark Briggs M (20GP 1G 2A), Tom Parratt D (16GP 1A)
Key Newcomers: Cody Arnoux F
Analysis: The fact that Wilmington is starting the 2013 season with no association to an MLS Club is a surprise, especially since the current roster only has 12 players under contract. Wilmington has also suffered major losses including goalkeeper Alex Howath, midfielder Troy Cole and striker Andriy Budney. Although the biggest loss was Vancouver signing Corey Hertzog, who spent the 2012 season on loan with the Hammerheads and was one of the best players in the league. Former Vancouver Whitecap, with MLS experience, Cody Arnoux joins the club on a full-time basis and currently will lead the attack with Bryce Taylor and Mark Briggs, although a striker of Hertzog’s skill level will have to be added if Wilmington wish to compete for a playoff spot.
2013 Prediction: 11th place
Aaron Nielsen has worked within the soccer/sports industry for over 15 years. His statistical analysis brings the beautiful game in a whole new light. The detailed player data and prospect lists he produces are used by many scouts, agents, and football insiders around the world.You can find updating stats regularly at ENBSports.
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