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Posted by
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November 4, 2013 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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@ENBSports
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The frustration of soccer reared it's ugly head last Wednesday as the Montreal Impact ended their 2013 season on a decline of epic proportion. The one time MLS points leader ended the season with only one win in nine games and after just sneaking into the playoffs, lost handily to the Houston Dynamo.
For me, Montreal were always a balloon who were about to burst. In the beginning of the season I called their team development an experiment going against the grain of the traditional systems used in MLS and trying to create a continental approach. In the end what had happened is almost how I predicted it would in my February preview and updated article a few weeks before the season ended. A lack of depth to fill in missing pieces turned the Impact from a competitor to probably the worst team in the table and very few should be surprised with how it ended.
The most telling statistic of the 2013 Montreal Impact story is the team performance with and without Alesandro Nesta. It provides MLS two lessons, one where the MLS is in comparison to the quality of soccer in other leagues and how difficult it is to rely on a 37 year old. With Nesta in the lineup the Montreal were twelve wins, five draws and six losses, which meant without him, including the playoff game, the Impact were two wins, two draws and eight losses. Add to this that Marco Di Viao counted for 40% of the team goals, and he only scored two in Montreal's last eight games, makes the picture of what happened to the Impact much clearer.
I would like to use the Montreal Impact 2013 season to demonstrate another issue in the ongoing development of an MLS club, and that is properly evaluating the Draft and College-based players. On January 12, 2012, just after their expansion draft, the Montreal Impact made their second biggest decision of a new soccer club in drafting Andrew Wenger first overall in the 2012 MLS Superdraft. Fast-forward to the past two weeks, Montreal are competing in the most important games in their MLS history and playing up front is Andrew Wenger with five career goals to his name and only one during the 2013 season.
I've been a huge supporter of the NCAA game and the MLS draft, and I realize that close to 50% of the players in MLS have arrived from the College game. The most successful clubs in MLS history tend to average 70% players from the college ranks. The league salary structure is set up with an emphasis on college-base players promoted by programs such as Generation Addidas and the general fact that College-base players are willing to sign entry level contracts, so I still feel dollar-for-dollar the college game is still the best option in properly developing the core of an MLS club.
This being said, you also have to commit to the idea, value and understand the College game and most importantly realize how as a club you are going to integrate the players you choose to draft. This has been an issue throughout the history of MLS by all clubs, and through these frustrations, clubs and the league have put large resources in academies to potentially replace the College game as the main source for MLS talent. However, if you look at the history of MLS you will also notice the College-base players who are given opportunities find roles for themselves and become the most consistent performers in the league and the best value for money.
This brings me back to Wenger. Going into the 2011 NCAA Division 1 college season, Wenger previously played as a center back for the Duke Blue Devils, liked for his athletic ability and size he was touted as a future defender in the MLS. Although Duke's coach John Kerr (Another Canadian NCAA coach) decided his club needed the most help up front and decided to start Wenger as his Centre Forward despite not scoring a goal the season before. The college junior excelled in the role, scoring 17 goals in 22 games and winning the Hermann Trophy: the soccer equivalent to the Heisman and MLS granted him a GA Contract that currently pays him, with bonuses, close to $200,000 a year.
In my continuing evaluation of college and draft eligible MLS players, I first evaluated Wenger at the beginning of the 2010 season. I liked his reputation as a Defender, although listed him as a Defensive Midfielder because of the offensive potential he showed as a freshman scoring four goals including two from distance. His play in 2010 further enhanced his defensive reputation and going into the 2011 season I had him as a potential GA, again as a Defensive Midfielder. His new position, and most importantly his goals, brought further attention and by season's end. Winning the Hermann and given a GA contract he was rated as a top five prospect going into the 2012 draft, although in my opinion his best position in MLS would be as a Defensive Midfielder knowing the requirements at MLS to score is much different than it is in college.
The day of the draft I was surprised he went first overall, and talk of being used as a forward especially, since drafted second overall by the Vancouver Whitecaps was Darren Mattocks. Mattocks, a player who unlike Wenger, checks all the boxes in terms of what you want in a centre forward and a player during his college career scored 39 goals and had 101 shots on target in 47 games. There was also forwards in the draft such as Dom Dwyer, Ethan Finlay and Bryan Gaul who could of been available at Montreal's 2nd pick, giving Montreal the option of drafting other top five prospects, including midfielder Kelyn Rowe or center back Andrew Jean-Baptiste first overall instead.
I'm not saying Andrew Wenger isn't a good MLS player, or even a bad draft pick, although despite his injuries I still feel that Darren Mattocks was easily the best player in the 2012 draft and way better option up front. The bigger issue is how Montreal has used and developed Wenger as a player. He was drafted as forward and despite his struggle at this position this is how he has been exclusively used. Prior to final regular season game against Toronto, Wenger had played 46 MLS games, 14 as a starter, five goals, three assists and 17 shots on target, and based on the development structure on the Montreal Impact he still arguably the second best option and only other forward in the lineup against Toronto behind Di Vaio.
Montreal lost 1-0 to a TFC team out of the playoffs and 23 points worse off in the standings. A win would have given Montreal a first round bye, instead they had to play the wildcard game in Houston where they went on to lose 3-0. I wouldn't blame Wenger for the losses and you could argue the loss against Toronto had more to do with nervous defending of academy based players Wandrille Lefevre and Karl Ouimette. However, Wenger did get five opportunities to score only hitting the target with one of them against Toronto, while the game against Houston he was completely shutout before being subbed in the 62nd minute. Probably a bigger factor in these games were the club deciding to play a 4-4-2 which restricted the influence of Wenger's strike partner Di Vaio, something Montreal has relayed on this season.
What can be learned from this is, of the hundreds of players who MLS drafts each year, very few players fit in automatically or ever duplicate their performance in college. The expectation and style of the college game is very different than the professional one. Play is more direct and results tend to be based much more on instincts than tactical awareness, so player's statistics and reputation can be exaggerated. This being said, young players at every level need to be nurtured and just like other sports it might take three to four seasons to properly develop a player.
If Montreal were willing to commit to a player like Wenger then maybe with these added minutes he can develop into a striker, or instead be used in another position based on the skillset he provides. Developed properly, the college player provides MLS clubs with much needed depth, although depth only adds value if the replacement player is able to play so it's MLS clubs' responsibility to further develop the player as much as it's the player's responsibility to perform.
Aaron Nielsen has worked within the soccer/sports industry for over 15 years. His statistical analysis brings the beautiful game in a whole new light. The detailed player data and prospect lists he produces are used by many scouts, agents, and football insiders around the world.You can find updating stats regularly at ENBSports.
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